FTSE 100 aims for record high, GBP/USD recovers as gold hits all-time high above $3,800
Last week’s strong rally in the FTSE 100 puts its record high back on the map while GBP/USD recovers from last week’s low and the gold price hits another all-time high, this time above the $3,800 mark.
Macro update
Jobs data: Investors await Friday’s US payrolls, expected to show modest growth and 4.3% unemployment - crucial for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut decisions.
Shutdown risk: A potential US government shutdown could delay key data, forcing the Fed to rely on private surveys ahead of its October meeting.
Fed outlook: Markets see a 90% chance of an October rate cut and two-thirds odds of another in December, though stronger jobs numbers may slow easing.
Valuations: The S&P 500 trades at 22.8x forward earnings - near a 5-year high - leaving equities exposed to negative surprises despite record highs.
Asia session: Most Asian markets gained, led by China and South Korea; Japan’s Nikkei slipped after September strength.
Commodities & FX: Gold set a record above $3,800.00, oil eased on supply gains, the US dollar weakened, and Treasuries rallied amid shutdown worries.
FTSE 100 rally is ongoing
Last week's sharp rise in the FTSE 100 has taken it close to its 12 September peak at 9,340 which remains in sight, together with the August all-time high at 9,358.
Potential slips may find support around the 15 September high at 9,298.
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
GBP/USD bounces off support
Last week's swift GBP/USD decline ended at $1.3324, marginally below its $1.3334 early September low before recovering.
The 22 September low at $1.3453 represents an immediate upside target. If bettered, the 23 September high at $1.3536 would be next in line.
Minor support may be spotted around the late August low at $1.3417 ahead of the 22 August low at $1.3391.
GBP/USD daily candlestick chart
Gold hits yet another record high
The gold price accelerates higher towards the psychological $4,000.00 mark, so far hitting a new record at $3,819.00.
Minor support may be found around last week's high at $3,791.25 and at the 24 September low at $3,717.52.
Gold daily candlestick chart
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