Bitcoin Recovery Underway After Sharp 20% Drop as ETF Outflows Ease
Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery after a 20% correction that briefly took prices below $100,000. Despite $1.2 billion in ETF outflows and heavy macro pressure from US–China tensions and the ongoing US government shutdown, renewed institutional stability may help BTC regain momentum in the days ahead.
Bitcoin recovery underway
Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a turbulent stretch as institutional flows and macro-economic headwinds converge.
Recent data show that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced significant outflows of approximately $1.2 billion, reflecting a pullback in institutional enthusiasm even as the broader crypto narrative remains focused on long-term adoption.
At the same time, the market is under pressure from rising macro uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s price has slumped by up to 20% from its early October peak - by 5% in the past week alone - briefly dipping below the psychological $100,000.00 mark as concerns over central bank policy, US-China trade tensions, the longest US government shutdown in its history and risk-linked market moves weighed on sentiment.
Despite the pullback, the structural backdrop for Bitcoin retains its significance.
Analysts observe that even during these weaker phases, the trend of institutionalisation and ETF-linked flows remains a defining feature of Bitcoin’s evolving role in global finance.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s next moves will likely depend on whether institutions re-engage, risk sentiment improves, and macro conditions stabilise.
If ETF outflows moderate and macro fears ease, Bitcoin could resume upward momentum, as it started doing towards the end of last week.
Conversely, if outflows deepen and risk appetite collapses, BTC may drop below the psychological $100,000.00 level or below.
Bitcoin bullish case:
Bitcoin’s successful defence of its February-to-June support zone at $99,169.54-to-$98,330.30 and subsequent recovery effort puts the September low at $107,286.25 on the map. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the October-to-November downtrend line at $109,663.02 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $110,381.22 may be reached as well.
Bitcoin bearish case:
Were the current bounce to run out of steam below the 2nd of November reaction high at $111,207.47, a retest of the $99,169.54-to-$98,330.30 support zone may be at hand. If slipped through on a daily chart closing basis, another down leg may take BTC towards the May low at $93,450.20.
Bitcoin daily candlestick chart
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