​​Berkeley Group full-year results preview: navigating recovery amid policy shifts and market dynamics​

Berkeley Group maintains guidance amid market uncertainty

​As Berkeley Group prepares to release its full-year results on 20 June 2025, investors and analysts are closely monitoring the broader UK housebuilding sector. The industry is experiencing a cautious recovery, influenced by government initiatives, evolving market conditions, and company-specific strategies. 

​Berkeley has reaffirmed its guidance, projecting a pre-tax profit of at least £525 million for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) and £450 million for fiscal year 2026 (FY26). The company has secured a significant portion of its FY25 earnings through exchanged sales contracts, demonstrating resilience amid market fluctuations. 

​This guidance maintenance provides stability for investors concerned about the broader challenges facing the housebuilding sector, with Berkeley's focus on high-value London and South East developments providing some insulation from wider market volatility. 

​The decline in projected profits from £525 million to £450 million between FY25 and FY26 reflects the challenging market conditions and regulatory pressures expected to continue affecting the sector over the medium term. 

​"Berkeley 2035" strategy focuses on long-term value creation

​The group's "Berkeley 2035" strategy emphasises long-term value creation, focusing on high-quality developments in London and the South East. Berkeley has expressed optimism regarding the UK government's planning reforms, which aim to streamline the approval process for new housing projects.

​However, the company has also highlighted challenges, including the impact of new regulatory measures such as the building safety levy, which could affect project delivery timelines and costs.

​The London and South East focus remains central to Berkeley's competitive positioning, with these markets typically offering higher margins and more resilient demand compared to other regions, though they also face greater regulatory scrutiny and affordability challenges.

​Planning reform optimism suggests that Berkeley sees potential for improved project delivery timelines and reduced development costs if government initiatives successfully streamline the approval process for new housing developments.

​Government initiatives support sector recovery

​The UK housebuilding sector is showing signs of recovery, supported by government policies and market trends. Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £39 billion investment in affordable housing over the next decade, aiming to address the housing shortage and stimulate construction activity.

​House prices have seen a modest increase, with annual growth at 3.5% as of April 2025, indicating a stabilising market after the volatility of recent years. This price stability provides a more predictable environment for housebuilders to plan development programmes and pricing strategies.

​The substantial government investment in affordable housing creates opportunities for housebuilders to participate in social housing delivery, though this typically involves lower margins compared to private developments.

​Market stabilisation at moderate price growth levels suggests that the sector may have found a sustainable equilibrium after the dramatic swings experienced during the pandemic and subsequent interest rate changes.

​Mixed sector performance highlights competitive dynamics

​Company performances across the sector have been mixed, with Bellway raising its annual homebuilding forecast, citing strong spring sales and increased customer demand. Conversely, MJ Gleeson issued a profit warning due to the increased use of sales incentives, highlighting the challenges of maintaining margins in a competitive market.

​Despite these positive indicators, the sector faces ongoing challenges, including labour shortages, material costs, and the need for further planning reforms to meet ambitious housing targets.

​The divergent performances between companies like Bellway and MJ Gleeson demonstrate the importance of market positioning, with premium-focused builders like Berkeley potentially better positioned than those competing primarily on price.

​Labour shortages remain a structural challenge for the housebuilding sector, with skilled tradespeople in high demand and wage inflation continuing to pressure construction costs across all market segments.

​Regulatory environment creates challenges and opportunities

​The building safety levy and other regulatory measures introduced following the Grenfell Tower tragedy continue to impact development costs and timelines, particularly for high-rise and complex developments typical of Berkeley's portfolio.

​While these measures increase immediate costs and complexity, they may also create barriers to entry for smaller competitors, potentially benefiting established players like Berkeley with the resources and expertise to navigate complex regulatory requirements.

​Planning reforms promised by the government could significantly impact Berkeley's development pipeline, with streamlined approvals potentially accelerating project delivery and reducing holding costs for development sites.

​The effectiveness of government initiatives in accelerating housing development and addressing regulatory hurdles will be crucial for the sector's medium-term prospects and Berkeley's ability to achieve its ambitious development targets.

​Market demand factors and consumer sentiment

​Market demand dynamics continue to be influenced by consumer confidence and affordability, with interest rates and economic stability playing crucial roles in purchasing decisions. The modest house price growth suggests that affordability concerns may be stabilising.

​Berkeley's focus on the London and South East markets provides exposure to areas with structural demand drivers including population growth, employment opportunities, and international investment, though these markets also face greater affordability challenges.

​The company's high-end positioning means it serves customers who are typically less sensitive to mortgage rate changes but more exposed to broader economic sentiment and confidence in property as an investment.

​Consumer behaviour in the premium segment has shown resilience, with buyers often having greater financial flexibility and viewing property purchases as long-term investments rather than purely housing decisions.

​Berkeley analyst ratings and technical analysis

​Berkeley has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘8 Outperform’ and is rated as a ‘buy’ with 2 ’buy’, 2 ‘hold’ and 0 ‘sell’ recommendations (as of 13/06/2025). 

Berkeley TipRanks Smart Score chart

​According to LSEG Data & Analytics, 1 analyst has a ‘strong buy’ recommendation for Berkeley, 5 a ‘buy’, 7 a ‘hold’ and 3 a ‘sell’ with a long-term mean price target at 4,476.45p, 5% above the current share price (as of 13/06/2025). 

Berkeley LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​The Berkeley share price, up around 10% year-to-date, has recently broken out of an ascending triangle and revisited its late November peaks at 4,378p-to-4,380p which so far capped the upside.

​Berkeley daily candlestick chart 

​A rise and daily chart close above the 4,378p-to-4,380p resistance area would put the February-to-October 2024 lows at 4,478p-to-4,582p on the map. This resistance area is expected to act as strong initial resistance, though.

​Berkeley weekly candlestick chart 

​While the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,142p and the mid-May-to-June lows at 4,208p-to-4,120p underpin, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Failure at this support zone may put the January-to-February highs at 3,958p-to-3,294p on the map.

​Investment considerations and strategic positioning

​Investors are advised to monitor policy implementation effectiveness, market demand trends, and company strategies including adaptation to market conditions, cost management, and strategic investments in high-demand areas.

​Berkeley Group's upcoming results will provide valuable insights into the company's performance and strategic direction amid these evolving dynamics, particularly regarding the success of its premium positioning strategy.

1. ​Research Berkeley Group's market positioning, development pipeline, and strategic initiatives to understand the investment opportunity in London-focused housebuilding.
2. ​Consider how government policy changes, interest rate trends, and London market dynamics might impact the company's performance.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Search for 'Berkeley Group Holdings' or its ticker 'BKG' on our trading platform or app.
5. ​Consider appropriate position sizing given the cyclical nature of housebuilding stocks and their sensitivity to economic and policy changes.

​Share dealing provides direct exposure to Berkeley's premium London development strategy for long-term investors who believe in the structural demand drivers for high-quality housing in the capital.

​Spread betting and CFD trading offer flexible approaches for trading around earnings announcements and policy developments affecting the housebuilding sector.

​Berkeley Group's focus on high-quality developments in London and the South East, combined with its "Berkeley 2035" long-term strategy, positions it differently from volume housebuilders, potentially offering more resilient margins but also greater exposure to regulatory changes and market sentiment in the premium segment.

​The company's ability to maintain guidance despite sector challenges demonstrates operational resilience, though the projected profit decline between FY25 and FY26 reflects the ongoing headwinds facing even the most strategically positioned housebuilders in the current environment.​​