Antofagasta Q4 production report: Can the copper miner maintain strong momentum?
Antofagasta reports Q4 production on 29 January, with investors focused on copper volumes, cost control and growth projects following robust H1 performance.
Antofagasta Q4 production report: Can the copper miner maintain strong momentum?
Antofagasta PLC, the London-listed copper miner with its core operations in Chile, is set to report its quarter four (Q4) 2025 production and operational results on 29 January 2026.
This update will be one of the first detailed indicators of how the company's mining portfolio performed across the full calendar year, and it will provide important context ahead of the group's full-year 2025 earnings and annual report later in April. According to the company's financial calendar, the Q4 production release is a key scheduled event on the investor timetable.
Strong first-half performance sets high bar
Investors will look at this report through the lens of the robust results Antofagasta posted earlier in the year. In its half-year 2025 results, released in August, the group reported a strong operational and financial performance in the first half, with revenues rising sharply and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) jumping significantly, driven by higher copper production and a favourable cost environment.
Management underscored that margins had expanded to some of the highest levels in recent years, and underlying earnings per share (EPS) more than doubled compared with the prior period. This exceptional performance has raised expectations for full-year results.
The first half (H1) results demonstrated Antofagasta's operational leverage to copper prices and production volumes. When both factors align favourably, the company's profitability can expand dramatically given its relatively fixed cost base.
Antofagasta's Chilean operations benefit from established infrastructure, experienced workforce and proximity to Pacific export markets. These structural advantages support competitive cost positions relative to many global copper producers.
Copper production volumes remain critical focus
Against that backdrop, the Q4 update will focus primarily on full-year production volumes for copper and key by-products such as gold and molybdenum, as well as unit costs and any revisions to forward guidance.
Copper remains the core earnings driver for Antofagasta, with the company's major assets such as Los Pelambres, Centinela and Antucoya producing the bulk of output.
Higher copper volumes and realised prices helped underpin 2025's strong half-year performance, and investors will pay close attention to whether that trend continued in the second half of the year.
Early quarterly production reports earlier in 2025 pointed to solid throughput increases and grade improvements at key operations, which contributed to year-on-year (YoY) gains in the first quarter (Q1).
Copper demand fundamentals remain supportive given the metal's critical role in electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles. Global supply constraints have kept copper prices elevated, benefiting producers like Antofagasta.
By-product credits from gold and molybdenum production help offset copper production costs, improving overall economics. Strong precious metals prices during 2025 and in early 2026 have enhanced this benefit for diversified copper producers.
Cost discipline under scrutiny
Cost discipline and unit cash costs are also expected to be front of mind when assessing Q4 results. Antofagasta's ability to contain net cash costs while maintaining production stability has been a competitive advantage, especially in a period of volatile commodity markets.
Any indication of cost upticks - whether from energy, labour or logistics - could influence market expectations for 2026 guidance.
Chilean miners face specific cost considerations including water availability, energy pricing and labour negotiations. Antofagasta's management of these factors demonstrates operational competence and influences profitability significantly.
Key production metrics to monitor
Several specific metrics will provide crucial insight into operational performance:
- Total copper production versus full-year guidance
- Production volumes at individual mines (Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya)
- Gold and molybdenum by-product output
- Net cash costs per pound of copper produced
- All-in sustaining costs (AISC) including capital expenditure
Growth projects and capital allocation
Another theme likely to surface is capital expenditure and project progress, particularly around growth initiatives.
Investors have been watching the expansion of the Centinela second concentrator and water solutions at Los Pelambres, projects designed to sustain output growth and extend mine life over the medium term. Progress, timing and spending on these projects will shape confidence in Antofagasta's growth pipeline.
Water availability represents a critical constraint for Chilean copper mining given the country's arid climate. Solutions securing reliable water supplies enable sustainable production expansion whilst managing environmental impacts.
The Centinela expansion specifically aims to increase processing capacity and access higher-grade ore zones. Successful execution would position Antofagasta for production growth through the latter half of this decade.
Dividend policy and shareholder returns
The dividend context also matters significantly for Antofagasta's investment appeal. Antofagasta has a track record of returning cash to shareholders via a disciplined dividend policy, with interim and final dividends tied to earnings performance.
The Q4 results will help frame expectations for capital returns when full-year earnings are reported, potentially influencing yield forecasts and valuation multiples relative to peers in the copper and materials sector. It is of interest to note that mining companies typically distribute substantial portions of earnings during strong commodity price environments.
Antofagasta's controlling shareholder structure provides governance stability but also influences capital allocation decisions. The Luksic family's long-term ownership perspective shapes strategic planning and return policies.
Investors seeking income from mining shares often favour companies with established dividend track records. Antofagasta's policy of linking dividends to earnings provides transparency whilst allowing flexibility.
Global copper demand outlook
Finally, the update will be watched for broader commentary on global demand dynamics for copper, given its central role in electrification, renewable energy and EVs. Any management insights into order book strength, price assumptions or contract trends could add useful colour for analysts refining 2026 earnings models.
Copper prices have remained elevated due to supply constraints and strong demand from energy transition initiatives. Furthermore China's economic performance significantly influences global copper demand given its dominant consumption share.
How to trade commodities has become increasingly relevant as investors seek exposure to metals benefiting from decarbonisation trends. Copper stands out as a primary beneficiary.
Supply-side constraints, including declining ore grades and limited new mine development, support constructive pricing outlooks. These dynamics favour established producers with quality assets like Antofagasta.
Competitive positioning in copper sector
Antofagasta competes globally with diversified miners and pure-play copper producers for investor capital. Its focused copper strategy differentiates it from companies with more diverse commodity portfolios.
The company's Chilean asset concentration creates both advantages through operational synergies and risks through geographic concentration. Investors must weigh these factors when assessing portfolio fit.
Antofagasta's cost position relative to peers influences profitability across different copper price environments. Lower-cost producers maintain margins during price downturns whilst maximising profits during upswings.
Valuation considerations and share price analysis ahead of results
Antofagasta's share price performance – up over 8% year-to-date - reflects both copper price movements and company-specific execution. Strong operational results combined with elevated copper prices have supported robust share price appreciation.
Over the past year the copper miner’s share price has risen by close to 103%. It continues to trade close to its current January 3678p record high, a rise above which would likely engage the psychological 4000p mark.
Antofagasta daily candlestick chart
The medium-term uptrend is deemed to stay intact as long as the October 2025 consolidation low at 2,546p underpins.
Valuation metrics for mining companies typically include price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, enterprise value to EBITDA multiples and dividend yields. Antofagasta's metrics should be assessed relative to both historical ranges and peer comparisons.
Mining stocks can trade at substantial discounts during commodity downturns and premiums during bull markets. Current valuations of a P/E ratio of around 43 must be considered in the context of copper price sustainability and production growth visibility.
The Q4 production report will influence earnings estimates for full-year 2025 and guidance for 2026. These forward-looking assessments drive valuation more than historical results alone.
What the Q4 report means for investors
In summary, Antofagasta's 29 January Q4 production and results update will offer a pivotal read on how the company closed out a strong 2025, how effectively it managed costs and execution, and how its portfolio is positioned for growth in 2026 and beyond.
Strong production numbers meeting or exceeding guidance would validate management's operational capabilities and support confidence in future performance. Cost control demonstration remains equally important for margin sustainability.
The update provides crucial data points for assessing whether Antofagasta's exceptional H1 performance represented a temporary peak or the beginning of a sustained period of strong results. This distinction matters significantly for valuation.
Investors will also look for signals about 2026 guidance and medium-term growth trajectories. Capital expenditure commentary and project progress updates shape expectations about future production capacity.
Antofagasta analyst ratings
Fundamental analysts are split between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ rating on Antofagasta, with a long-term consensus price target at 3,036.39p, implying roughly 14% downside compared to current levels as of 22 January 2026.
Antofagasta LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Antofagasta is also viewed favourably by TipRanks with a Smart Score of “9 – Outperform” alongside a buy rating.
Antofagasta TipRanks Smart Score chart
How to invest in Antofagasta shares
Investors interested in copper exposure through mining equities have several options for investing in Antofagasta shares. Here's how to approach investing in this Chilean copper producer:
- Research Antofagasta's operational performance, copper market fundamentals and growth projects thoroughly. Understanding mining sector dynamics and commodity price drivers helps inform investment decisions. Investing for beginners provides useful background.
- Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account to access UK-listed shares. Antofagasta trades on the London Stock Exchange under the ticker ANTO.
- Search for Antofagasta shares on the trading platform. Review current pricing, production reports and analyst recommendations before making investment decisions.
- Choose the number of shares or value of money you'd like to invest based on your portfolio allocation strategy. Consider whether to hold shares in a general account, individual savings account (ISA) or self-invested personal pension (SIPP) for tax efficiency.
- Place your trade and monitor your investment over time. Antofagasta provides quarterly production updates and semi-annual financial results, offering regular insight into operational and financial performance.
Remember that mining stocks can be volatile and are influenced by commodity price movements, operational factors and geopolitical risks.
Diversification across multiple holdings reduces concentration risk in individual mining companies.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Connect with us
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Professional clients trading spread bets and CFDs can lose more than they deposit.
The value of shares, ETFs and other ETPs bought through a share dealing account, a stocks and shares ISA or a SIPP can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Some ETPs carry additional risks depending on how they’re structured, investors should ensure they familiarise themselves with the differences before investing.
Share dealing and IG Smart Portfolio accounts provided by IG Trading and Investments Ltd, CFD accounts and US options and futures accounts are provided by IG Markets Ltd, spread betting provided by IG Index Ltd.
IG is a trading name of IG Trading and Investments Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 11628764), IG Markets Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 04008957) and IG Index Ltd (a company registered in England and Wales under number 01190902). Registered address at Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2YA. IG Markets Ltd (Register number 195355), IG Trading and Investments Ltd (Register Number 944492) and IG Index Ltd (Register number 114059) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
The information on this site isn’t directed at residents of the United States, Belgium or any particular country outside the UK and isn’t intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
