GBP/USD Forecast Today: What Non-Farm Payrolls Could Mean for the Pound

This article explains what non-farm payrolls measures, the data that has led into today's release, and how GBP/USD has historically reacted to strong or weak prints. It is for information purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice.

GBP/USD This Week: Where the Pair Stands

GBP/USD traded at 1.3466 during Thursday's North American session on 6 August 2026, having bounced off daily lows of 1.3404 earlier in the day (FXStreet, 6 August 2026). By late Thursday it eased slightly to trade near 1.3450 as the US Dollar Index firmed around 0.26% to near the 100.00 level (FXStreet, 6 August 2026).

With no Bank of England meeting scheduled this week, sterling has taken its lead almost entirely from the US dollar side of the pair. Forecasters see the pair trading broadly between 1.32 and 1.36 across the week of 3 to 7 August 2026 (IG UK, 3 August 2026).

Why It Moves GBP/USD More Than UK Data This Week

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026 in a split vote that flagged upside risks to inflation, its fifth hold of the year. With that decision already delivered and no further meeting until 17 September 2026, there is no fresh UK monetary policy catalyst this week (Cambridge Currencies, 4 August 2026).

That leaves US economic data, and today's non-farm payrolls release in particular, as the main driver of GBP/USD direction into the weekend.

What Is Non-Farm Payrolls?

Non-farm payrolls, commonly abbreviated to NFP, is a monthly US employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that measures the change in the number of people employed in the previous month, excluding farm workers and a small number of other categories (Forex Fundamentals, 2026).

It is released on the first Friday of most months and is one of the most closely watched economic indicators globally, because a strong US labour market can support the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, which typically strengthens the US Dollar against other currencies, including the pound (Forex Fundamentals, 2026).

The Data Leading Into Today's Release

June's non-farm payrolls print came in at just 57,000, well below the 110,000 consensus forecast, alongside a combined 74,000 downward revision to the April and May figures (FinanceCalendar, citing BLS Employment Situation Summary, 2 July 2026).

Ahead of today's July release, several leading indicators pointed to continued softness. The ADP National Employment Report showed the US private sector added only 44,000 jobs in July, below the 75,000 forecast, while the ISM Services Employment Index fell from 51.2 to 47.4, moving into contraction territory (TradingKey, 7 August 2026).

Not every signal was weak. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 1 August came in at 199,000, slightly better than the 202,000 estimate, and Challenger Job Cuts fell 27% to 33,429 in July, the lowest reading in two years (FXStreet, 6 August 2026).

The market consensus for today's July non-farm payrolls print is 80,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.2% and average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.3% month on month and 3.5% year on year (FXStreet, 6 August 2026).

How GBP/USD Could React

The scenarios below are for information and educational purposes only. They describe typical historical patterns and do not predict how GBP/USD will actually move today.

Strong NFP Print

A July payrolls figure meaningfully above the 80,000 consensus, particularly alongside firm wage growth, would typically be read as supportive of the US Dollar. In this scenario, GBP/USD has historically tended to soften, potentially testing the lower end of its 1.32 to 1.36 weekly range, as markets price a reduced chance of near term Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Weak NFP Print

A payrolls figure well below consensus, especially if paired with downward revisions similar to June's pattern, would typically be read as dollar negative. GBP/USD has historically tended to firm in this scenario, potentially testing the upper end of its weekly range, as markets increase expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

These are general historical tendencies, not guarantees. Non-farm payrolls prints are frequently revised in subsequent months, and market reaction can also depend on the unemployment rate and wage growth components alongside the headline figure.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching

Within the broader 1.32 to 1.36 weekly range, GBP/USD found support around 1.3404 and resistance approaching 1.3466 during trading on 6 August 2026 (FXStreet, 6 August 2026).

• 1.3450 to 1.3466: the area GBP/USD traded in through Thursday's session, acting as a near term pivot.
• 1.3404: the daily low seen on 6 August 2026, a potential support level if the US Dollar strengthens on a strong NFP print.
• 1.36: the upper end of the week's forecast range, a level that could come into focus on a weak NFP print.
• 1.32: the lower end of the week's forecast range, relevant if the US Dollar extends its gains.

Trading with leverage means losses can exceed your initial deposit, and currency markets can move quickly around scheduled data releases such as non-farm payrolls.

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