Bitcoin price 2026: has it bottomed after the fall from $126k?

Where bitcoin's price stands today

Bitcoin was trading near $64,500 on 30 July 2026, with little change on the day (Fortune, 30 July 2026). Ethereum, the second largest cryptoasset by market value, traded around $1,920 over the same period (Yahoo Finance, 30 July 2026).

Both assets have moved higher since the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England each held interest rates steady this week, a backdrop that has generally supported riskier assets, cryptoassets included (Yahoo Finance, 30 July 2026).

How far bitcoin has fallen from its October 2025 high

Bitcoin hit an all time high above $126,198 in October 2025. Since then it has fallen roughly 49% to 50%, a decline that ranks among its largest drawdowns on record, according to data compiled by Bitcoin Magazine Pro (Bitcoin Magazine, February 2026).

The decline was not smooth. Bitcoin broke below $60,000 in early June 2026 for the first time since late 2024, before staging a partial recovery that has since stalled and restarted more than once (Bitcoin Magazine, June 2026).

What's driving the recent recovery

Several factors are supporting bitcoin's move off its June low. A softer US dollar and two major central banks holding rates rather than raising them this week have generally lifted appetite for risk assets (Yahoo Finance, 30 July 2026).

Some analysts who study bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycle, in which the reward for mining new bitcoin is periodically reduced, suggest the bottoming process after a peak can extend for many months. This is attributed to analyst opinion and is not a guarantee of future performance (The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, July 2026).

Signs traders watch before calling a bottom

Some traders watch a cluster of moving averages to gauge whether a recovery has real momentum, though no one can reliably call a market bottom, and this guide does not attempt to.

As of 29 July 2026, bitcoin remained below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), a set of levels some traders use to judge medium- and long-term trend direction (CoinDCX, 29 July 2026). Being below all of them at once is generally read as a sign the longer-term trend has not yet turned higher.

Key technical levels (50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs)

An exponential moving average, or EMA, is a way of smoothing out price data that gives more weight to recent prices. Traders often watch whether the price is above or below these lines, and whether shorter term lines cross above longer-term ones, as one input among many when assessing trend strength. This is a description of a common technical approach, not a recommendation to trade on it.

Cryptoassets are highly volatile and largely unregulated. No consumer protection. Tax on profits may apply.

UK's new crypto rules: what they mean for investors

IG's coverage of the FCA's finalised cryptoasset framework, published 30 June 2026, and what changes from October 2027.

How UK investors can get exposure to bitcoin

There are two broad routes UK residents use to get exposure to bitcoin, and they carry different risks. Buying bitcoin directly through an exchange means owning the underlying asset, while trading bitcoin CFDs means taking a position on the price without owning the coin itself.

Losses can exceed your initial deposit when trading with leverage. Anyone considering either route should read the specific risk warnings for that product before proceeding, since the FCA still treats most cryptoasset activity as largely unregulated ahead of the new regime due in October 2027 (FCA, 30 June 2026).

Buying bitcoin directly vs trading bitcoin CFDs

Buying and holding bitcoin directly means the investor owns the asset and is exposed to its full price movement, up or down, with no leverage unless they add it separately. Some investors look for exchanges or platforms that operate in the UK, though the guide does not name or rank specific providers.

Trading bitcoin CFDs, or contracts for difference, lets a trader speculate on bitcoin's price without owning it, often using leverage. Leverage can magnify both gains and losses, and losses can exceed the amount deposited, so this route carries a different and generally higher risk profile than direct ownership.

The risks of trying to time a crypto bottom

Trying to call the exact bottom is inherently uncertain and carries meaningful risk of loss. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from a peak on several occasions in its history, and each episode has looked different at the time (Yahoo Finance, July 2026).

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Cryptoassets remain highly volatile and largely unregulated in the UK for now, with no consumer protection, and tax on any profits may apply depending on individual circumstances.

FAQ

Cryptoassets are highly volatile and largely unregulated. No consumer protection. Tax on profits may apply. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change. Seek independent advice.