Vodafone H1 results preview: can Germany’s recovery and Three merger deliver growth? 

Vodafone H1 results preview: can Germany’s recovery and Three merger deliver growth?

Vodafone publishes its half-year results on Tuesday 10 November, with investors looking for confirmation that its turnaround is gaining traction across Europe and Africa. The main tests will be whether Germany’s recovery is sustainable, the UK integration of Three is delivering promised synergies, and management can maintain its expectation of reaching the upper end of full-year guidance.

The results follow a promising start to the 2026/27 financial year. In July, Vodafone reported broad-based growth across its businesses, with organic service revenue up 5.2% and adjusted EBITDAaL – earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and leases – rising 6.2%. Chief executive Margherita Della Valle said the group expected to deliver the upper end of its revised full-year guidance.

Those looking to invest in Vodafone can do so through IG Invest or our share dealing service, while traders can access the share price via spread betting or CFD trading.

Full-year guidance in focus

Vodafone’s FY27 guidance, updated to include the consolidation of Safaricom, forecasts adjusted EBITDAaL of €13.0 billion to €13.3 billion and adjusted free cash flow of €2.6 billion to €2.9 billion. The company expects to reach the upper end of both ranges, following its encouraging first-quarter performance.

The half-year figures will provide the first substantial test of that confidence. Investors will want to see revenue growth translating into improved profitability and cash generation, rather than being absorbed by higher commercial investment, integration costs and network expenditure.

For context, Vodafone’s FY26 total revenue increased 8% to €40.5 billion, while service revenue rose 8.8% to €33.5 billion. Organic service revenue growth was 5.4%, and adjusted EBITDAaL increased 3.8% to €11.4 billion. However, free cash flow and the group’s balance sheet will remain important measures of how effectively it is converting its expanding operations into shareholder value.

Germany: the crucial recovery

Germany remains one of Vodafone’s most important markets, accounting for around a third of group service revenue. Its performance has been a significant drag on the business in recent years, following customer losses, intense competition and changes to the country’s cable television market.

There are signs that conditions are improving. German service revenue grew 1.2% organically in Q1 FY27, supported by wholesale and fixed-line revenue, stronger broadband average revenue per user and growth in business digital services. This followed a difficult period in which the group struggled to offset pressure on mobile and broadband customer numbers.

However, the recovery is not yet firmly established. Mobile contract additions remain challenging, while broadband customer numbers have been affected by fewer new wins. Vodafone will need to demonstrate that improved pricing and customer retention can translate into sustained revenue growth.

Investors will also be watching the rollout of its fibre and cable infrastructure, including its partnership with Deutsche GigaNetz. The expansion of broadband coverage should help Vodafone compete for customers and improve its longer-term growth prospects, but the benefits will take time to feed through into earnings.

VodafoneThree: integration and synergies

The UK business is another major focus following Vodafone’s merger with Three UK, completed in May 2025. The deal created a larger mobile operator with the scale to compete more effectively with BT’s EE and Virgin Media O2, while promising substantial cost savings and network investment.

In its first-quarter update, Vodafone reported UK organic service revenue growth of 0.6%, an improvement on the 0.2% decline recorded in the previous quarter. Growth was supported by fixed-line and wholesale revenues, while mobile revenue continued to face some pressure from the timing of mid-contract price increases and business contract renewals.

The integration is progressing, with network-sharing activation ahead of plan and around 70% of the UK population already able to access VodafoneThree’s improved 5G speeds. Customer loyalty at Three has also improved, with consumer contract churn falling by one percentage point in the first quarter.

The key question is whether Vodafone can turn those operational improvements into financial benefits. Management has outlined a substantial synergy opportunity from combining the networks, stores and other operations. Investors will want an update on the pace of savings, the cost of achieving them and whether the group remains on track to deliver its integration targets.

Africa and Safaricom provide additional momentum

Vodafone’s African operations have been a consistent source of growth. In Q1 FY27, Vodacom service revenue increased 12.6% organically, supported by strong demand for mobile connectivity and financial services.

The consolidation of Safaricom, following Vodacom’s increase in its stake to 55%, is also changing the group’s financial profile. Safaricom has operations in Kenya and Ethiopia and provides exposure to markets with significant potential for mobile data and digital financial services growth.

Vodafone’s revised FY27 guidance includes nine months of Safaricom consolidation, contributing an estimated €1.1 billion to adjusted EBITDAaL, although the expected impact on adjusted free cash flow is nil. This distinction is important: the acquisition boosts reported earnings, but investors will want to assess the underlying cash contribution and the investment required to support future expansion.

The performance of Vodafone’s financial services operations, including mobile money, will therefore be another area to watch.

Dividends, debt and the outlook

Vodafone has spent several years reshaping its portfolio, including disposals of non-core businesses and a renewed focus on Europe and Africa. It has also been returning capital to shareholders, with dividends and share buybacks forming part of its investment proposition.

The half-year results should offer a clearer picture of the group’s cash generation, debt position and ability to balance network investment, integration spending and shareholder distributions. The market will also be looking for any indication that the improved trading momentum can be sustained into the second half.

Overall, Vodafone enters its results with encouraging momentum, but expectations are rising. Germany needs to demonstrate a durable recovery, the UK merger must begin delivering measurable financial benefits, and Africa’s strong growth needs to translate into cash. Confirmation that the group remains on track for the upper end of its FY27 guidance would reinforce the turnaround story; any sign of renewed weakness in Germany or delays to UK synergies could temper investor enthusiasm.

Vodafone technical analysis and analyst ratings

The Vodafone share price – up over 16% year-to-date – has benefitted from a 35% rally between July and mid-September amid the telecom giant’s recovery story. Since then it has given back some of these gains but nonetheless remains above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 115.29p. When a share trades above it, it is seen as a proxy for a bullish share price.

Vodafone daily candlestick chart

While the early August low at 113.80p underpins on a daily chart closing basis, the medium-term trend is deemed to be bullish with the September peak at 132.05p remaining in focus.

A fall and daily chart close below the August low at 113.80p may lead to the partial closure of the 9-to-10 July gap at 107.45p-to-97.98p. In this scenario good support may be encountered between the February-to-May lows at 105.85p-to-104.20p.

TipRanks has a Smart Score of ‘6 Neutral’ and a ‘hold’ rating for Vodafone.

According to LSEG Data & Analytics analysts rate Vodafone also as a ‘hold’ with 7 ‘buy’ ratings, 6 ‘hold’ and 6 ‘sell’ recommendations and a mean long-term price target at 124.40p, around 7% above current levels (as of 6 November 2026).

How to invest in Vodafone shares

1. Do your research on Vodafone, the half-year results on 10 November and the key metrics to watch across Germany, VodafoneThree and Africa
2. Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account with us
3. Search for Vodafone (VOD) in our platform or app
4. Choose the number of shares or value of money you’d like to invest
5. Place your trade