S&P 500 resumes its ascent as EUR/GBP, silver price rise

Macro update

Asian shares extend winning streak as CoreWeave calms AI concerns: MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific index climbed 1.9% for a third consecutive session, with Taiwan gaining 3%, South Korea 2.6% and Japan’s Nikkei 1.5%. Sentiment was supported by CoreWeave beating revenue expectations and forecasting profitability in the first half of 2028, sending its shares 8% higher after hours.

US stocks retreat as inflation comes in hotter than expected: The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.38% and the Nasdaq declined 0.74% after October consumer prices rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast. Nvidia dropped another 5.4% amid an internal investigation into allegations involving chief executive Jensen Huang and foreign spying.

Markets fully price December Fed hike as bigger move gains traction: Traders now fully expect a rate increase in December, while the probability of a 50-basis-point move rose to 11.8%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 0.3% core inflation reading would prompt him to consider a half-point increase, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for at least two further hikes.

Treasury yields jump as rate expectations shift higher: The US two-year Treasury yield surged almost 19 basis points to 4.736%, its biggest one-day increase since April 2025. The sell-off spread into Asian bond markets, pushing Japan’s 10-year yield 11 basis points higher to 2.795%.

Gold edges higher after steep decline: Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,057.33 an ounce after tumbling almost 3% on Tuesday. A stronger dollar and rising expectations for higher interest rates continued to weigh on the non-yielding precious metal.

Oil rebounds as Hormuz attacks revive supply concerns: Brent crude gained 0.8% to $92.26 a barrel after falling as low as $89.16 overnight, with renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz tempering hopes for a de-escalation in the war on Iran.

​S&P 500 sits between a rock and a hard place

​The S&P 500 has so far managed to bounce off its 7,350 three-month low but needs to rise further and make a daily chart close above its 7,517 early November high for the bulls to be back in control. Meanwhile the index is expected to fluctuate between these two extremes.

A rise above the 9 November high at 7,577 may lead to the 7,611-to-7,617 resistance zone being revisited. It contains the 1 September, 1 and 23 October lows. Slightly above this area lies the 16 October low at 7,632 which may also act as resistance.

A slip through the 10 November low at 7,470 may retest the 7,400 region and perhaps also this week's low at 7,350 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 7,331.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 5 November low at 7,350

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 4 November high at 7,715

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/GBP bounces off 1 1/2 year low

EUR/GBP is seeing a minor recovery from its £0.8322 late October low with the 28 October high at £0.8380 representing the first upside target, followed by the 26 October high at £0.8402.

Were the recent descent to resume, though, and a fall through the £0.8322 late October low to occur, the late March 2025 trough at £0.8316 is likely to be reached. If slipped through, the October 2024 and February 2025 lows at £0.8295-to-£0.8292 may also be hit.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 October low at £0.8322

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 26 October high at £0.8402

E​UR/GBP daily candlestick chart

​Silver nears resistance zone

The ​Silver price seems to be resuming its rally from its $48.6165 early November one-year low and is likely to soon probe the minor $53.7290-to-$54.6345 resistance zone, made up of the 28 October and 10 November highs. if overcome, the mid-July low at $54.7760 is expected to be reached as well as the mid-October low at $55.3985.

Minor support is seen at the 10 November low at $51.1290. Were this level to give way, the $48.6165 early November low may be back in sight. Further down lies the October 2025 trough at $45.5505.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 10 November $51.1290 low

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 20 October high at $58.6075

Silver daily candlestick chart