S&P 500 holds above support while EUR/GBP slides, silver price rallies

Macro update

Democrats take control of both chambers in blow to Trump: Democrats secured majorities in the Senate and House, including victories in key Senate races in South Carolina, Texas and Ohio. The result represents a significant setback for President Donald Trump and has raised concerns that tighter regulation could constrain growth in the AI sector.

Asian technology shares rebound after sharp early losses: Chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix and TSMC suffered steep falls before recovering ground. South Korea’s KOSPI erased its early 3% decline to trade slightly higher, while Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.42% lower at 62,188.63 after falling as much as 4.8%. Trump's more conciliatory remarks, in which he accepted the election result, encouraged investors to unwind defensive positions.

US and European futures recover as investors reassess political risks: S&P 500 futures were down 0.35%, while Nasdaq futures pared losses of more than 2% to 0.5%. European futures also recovered, falling 0.4% after an earlier 1.5% drop, as investors bet that political gridlock need not undermine corporate earnings.

Treasury prices rise as investors anticipate policy gridlock: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.906%, with investors expecting a divided Washington to make further tax cuts less likely and constrain government spending. Markets also scaled back expectations of interest rate increases next year.

Dollar weakens as yen, franc and sterling advance: The dollar index fell 0.37% to 101.34, with the yen and Swiss franc leading gains at 157.55 and 0.8144 per dollar, respectively. Sterling strengthened 0.37% to $1.3464 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday, while gold climbed more than 2% as the greenback weakened.

Crude rebounds as Iran uncertainty and stock draw support prices: Brent rose 0.8% to $104.42 a barrel, while WTI gained 0.5% to $96.59 as traders assessed the implications of the US election for Washington’s next steps in the Iran war. An unexpected 5.27 million-barrel decline in US crude inventories, reported by the API, also supported prices ahead of official EIA figures.

​S&P 500 hovers above key support

​The S&P 500 so far managed to hold above its 7,528 late October low and, more importantly, its September low at 7,508. If slipped through, a medium-term top formation may be in the making.

While the 7,528-to-7,508 support zone underpins, the 1-to-23 October lows at 7,612-to-7,756 may be revisited. A rise and daily chart close above the 2 November high at 7,662 is needed for last week's price gap with the 29 October low at 7,691 to be filled.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish undertone while above the 16 October low at 7,508

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the September low at 7,508

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/GBP remains under pressure

EUR/GBP continues its descent and is seen trading at levels last seen in April 2025.

A fall through the £0.8322 late October low would push the late March 2025 trough at £0.8316 to the fore. If slipped through, the October 2024 and February 2025 lows at £0.8295-to-£0.8292.

Minor resistance sits at the 23 October £0.8362 low and at the £0.8402 late October high.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 26 October high at £0.8402

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 26 October high at £0.8402

E​UR/GBP daily candlestick chart

​Silver bounces off one-year low

The ​Silver price is seen swiftly recovering off its $48.6165 early November one-year low and is about to test its first minor resistance at the 27 October $52.6670 low.

For the bulls to gain traction not only is a break through the September-to-November downtrend line - currently at $53.7050 - needed but also a rise above the June-to-July and mid-October lows at $54.7760-to-$55.5967. This area represents significant resistance.

Were a slip through the $48.6165 early November low to be seen, the October 2025 trough at $45.5505 may be revisited

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the $48.6165 early November low

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 20 October high at $58.6075

Silver daily candlestick chart