S&P 500 hits record high as EUR/GBP nears key support and silver price range trades

​​​Macro update

Asian stocks retreat from record highs: The MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index fell 0.5%, led lower by Hong Kong and Singapore, while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.9% to 70,074 as investors took profits in AI-related shares following record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Oil prices rebound: Brent crude rose to over $101.50 a barrel and WTI to over $90 as a storm threat to US Gulf oil production and refining, along with Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, outweighed signs of recovering Middle Eastern supply.

Fed minutes take centre stage: The dollar index recovered to above 102 ahead of the September meeting minutes, with markets pricing a 21.5% chance of an October rate hike, down from around 51% a week earlier, while December odds stood at 68.5%.

French bonds extend recovery: The spread between French and German 10-year yields narrowed to 132 basis points from almost 160 last week after Marine Le Pen increased her proposed spending cuts to €140bn, although the euro slipped 0.3% to $1.123.

US Treasury yields remain elevated: The 10-year yield climbed to 5.307% ahead of a Treasury auction, with a 30-year sale due Thursday, keeping longer-dated borrowing costs close to the 24-year highs reached on Monday.

India raises rates to curb inflation: The Reserve Bank of India increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%, its first hike in almost four years, while Indian equities slipped 0.5%.

​S&P 500 trades in record highs

​The S&P 500 has reached a new record at 7,844 with the minor psychological 8,000 region being next in sight.

Good support sits between its recent highs at 7,794-to-7,771, followed by the early September high at 7,757 and the 19 August high at 7,744.

Further support lies at the early October low at 7,617 and further down  between the June-to-July highs and 10 September low at 7,581-to-7,573.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 1 October low at 7,617

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the September low at 7,508

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/GBP slips towards key support

EUR/GBP is on track for its ninth consecutive down day with the July and current October lows at £0.8458-to-£0.8455 remaining in focus. This area may offer support but, if slipped through, the 31 October 2024 and March 2025 highs at £0.8449-to-£0.8448 may be reached next, followed by the 3 October 2024 high at £0.8434.

Minor resistance sits at the 20 July low at £0.8484 and at the 10 July trough at £0.8509.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 1 October high at £0.8527

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 1 October high at £0.8527

EUR/USD daily candlestick chart

​Silver range trades in relatively low volatility

​Silver's fall through its key $63.2765-to-$61.0065 support zone has taken it to last week's low at $59.6865, above which it has been range trading since. Were this level to be slipped through, the $58.0000 region may be revisited.

Good resistance above last week's $62.0885 high sits between the July high and the mid-August-to-mid-September lows at $62.3100-to-$63.3093. 

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish undertone while below the 25 September high at $65.0905

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 9 September high at $68.3265

Silver daily candlestick chart