S&P 500 gunning for new record as EUR/GBP, silver price slip

​​​Macro update

Asian stocks rebound as chipmakers recover: A recovery in semiconductor and AI-related shares, including Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SoftBank, lifted MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan by 0.8% after it hit a ten-week low. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.61% to 68,193.13 at midday after falling 1.8%, although continued weakness in US chip stocks and bank shares capped gains.

Oil prices rise as Hormuz tensions escalate: Two vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian officials said they were adopting new tactics against shipping. Houthi attacks on a Saudi Aramco building in Dhahran added to supply concerns, pushing Brent to $106.27 a barrel, near a two-week high, and WTI to $94.70.

US inflation report takes centre stage: Investors awaited September CPI figures, with annual headline inflation forecast to accelerate to 3.6% from 3.4% and core prices expected to rise 0.2% month on month as energy costs rebounded.

Fed rate outlook remains uncertain: New York Fed President John Williams said another rate increase could be needed this year but not in 2027. Markets priced in a 22% chance of an October hike, a 77% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the 27–28 October meeting and an 88% chance of an increase in December.

Dollar slips as gold trades sideways: The dollar index eased to around 102.1 after falling 0.35% on Tuesday, with the euro at $1.1208, the yen at 158.19 per dollar and sterling at $1.3272. Gold held at $4,165.25 an ounce as higher oil prices and the risk of further rate increases offset one another.

Treasuries steady as bank results and Chinese data draw attention: The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.204% and the 30-year at 5.553%, with longer-dated bonds attracting safe-haven demand. US bank shares weakened after mixed results from Citigroup and peers, while China reported a 36.3% rise in September exports and the fastest growth in producer prices in more than four years.

​S&P 500 nears record highs

​The S&P 500 remains close to its recent record high at 7,844. If overcome, the minor psychological 8,000 region will probably be eyed next.

Support sits between its recent highs at 7,794-to-7,771, followed by the early September high at 7,757 and the 19 August high at 7,744. While the 8 October low at 7,730 underpins, the short-term uptrend remains intact.

Further support lies at the early October low at 7,617 and still further down  between the June-to-July highs and 10 September low at 7,581-to-7,573.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 8 October low at 7,730

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the September low at 7,508

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/GBP remains under pressure

EUR/GBP continues to slide and is seen trading at levels last seen in June 2025. The cross weighs on the 31 October 2024 and March 2025 highs at £0.8449-to-£0.8448 and so far dipped to £0.8443. If slipped through, the 3 October 2024 high at £0.8434 may be reached next. Further down lies the £0.8415-to-£0.8381 region, made up of the May-to-June 2025 lows.

Minor resistance above the 5 October low at £0.8458 lies at the 8 October £0.8470 high. Slightly further up the 20 July low at £0.8484 and the 10 July trough at £0.8509 may also act as resistance.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 8 October high at £0.8487

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 1 October high at £0.8527

EUR/USD daily candlestick chart

​Silver slips to three-month low

​Silver's fall through its key $63.2765-to-$61.0065 support zone has taken it to an over three-month low at $58.4190 with the $58.0000 region being in focus. Further down lies a minor support zone between the 8, 28 July and 3 August lows at $57.228-to-$56.5690.

Minor resistance lies around the 2 October $59.6910 low, ahead of the 22 July $60.9290 high and the 12 October high at $61.4490.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 2 October high at $62.0810

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 25 September high at $65.0890

Silver daily candlestick chart