Nasdaq 100, Brent crude remain under pressure as USD/JPY range trades

Macro update

Asian equities rebound as technology sell-off loses momentum: MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 2% after falling 4.6% last week, while Taiwan’s benchmark surged more than 6% following its steepest weekly decline in two decades, when concerns over AI profitability and Democratic midterm victories triggered heavy selling.

Nikkei bounces back after entering bear-market territory: Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed 2.33% higher at 58,775.50, recovering some of Friday’s 6% plunge that left the index more than 20% below its June record. A total of 208 of its 225 constituents advanced, although Japan Tobacco fell by its daily limit for a second straight session after Russia seized its assets in the country.

US futures extend Wall Street recovery despite Nvidia setback: S&P 500 e-minis gained 0.6% after the Nasdaq rose 1.1% and the S&P 500 added 0.3% on Friday. Nvidia fell around 6% in after-hours trading amid a company-led investigation into whether chief executive Jensen Huang had been targeted by foreign spying, while CoreWeave, Applied Materials and Cisco are due to report this week.

Oil falls further as Trump signals reluctance to escalate Iran conflict: Brent crude dropped 1.5% to $96.91 a barrel and WTI slipped 1% to $89.85 after Trump said he was highly unlikely to order further strikes on Iran as talks continued. The decline extended Brent’s 16% slide last week, although attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz and a Houthi strike on Saudi Aramco’s Riyadh offices kept supply risks in focus.

Gold advances as lower oil prices reduce inflation pressure: Spot gold climbed 1.2% to $4,112.90 an ounce as weaker oil prices eased inflation concerns and the dollar edged lower. Silver also advanced, gaining 1.4% to $52.57.

Markets raise Fed hike expectations ahead of US inflation data: US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, more than twice forecasts, pushing the probability of a December rate hike to 79% from 71%, according to CME FedWatch. The dollar recorded its biggest one-day gain in five months on Friday, with investors now turning their attention to Tuesday’s US CPI report.

Nasdaq 100 drops to over six-month low

The Nasdaq 100 remains under pressure, having last week slipped through its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 27,984 and, more importantly, its July low at 27,955 which currently acts as resistance ahead of the 2 November low at 27,967.

A fall through last week's low at 26,606 would likely lead to the October 2025-to-January 2026 highs at 26,182-to-26,165 being reached.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 5 November 28,078 high

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 4 November 28,829 high

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY sideways trades below its 200-day simple moving average

USD/JPY's recovery from its 23 October ¥156.08 low is being capped the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥158.64, above which lie the late September-to-October highs at ¥158.95-to-¥159.04. If overcome, the mid-August-to-early September highs at ¥159.78-to-¥160.39 may be reached.

Minor support sits at the 6 November ¥157.26 low, the September-to-November uptrend line at ¥157.21 and the 30 October low at ¥156.96. Were the next lower October low at ¥156.08 to be fallen through, the early August ¥155.23 low may once again be in sight.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the 23 October low at ¥156.08

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while above the 23 October low at ¥156.08

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude remains under pressure

Following the past week's around 15% drop to its $96.71 per barrel two-month low, the oil price remains under pressure. A fall through this level would engage the $96.19-to-$95.48 July-to-August highs and probably also the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $93.19. Another potential downside target is seen between the 13 August-to-26 August lows at $88.30-to-$87.00.

Minor resistance sits at the 6 November high at $104.19.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 6 November high at $104.19

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 11 September high at $111.45

Brent crude daily candlestick chart