Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY and Brent retreat 

Macro update

Asian stocks slump as AI chip fears trigger sell-off: Concerns over rapid technological advances at China’s CXMT sparked heavy selling in AI-linked semiconductor stocks, dragging MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan down around 2–3% to its lowest level since late July. South Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 6%, with Samsung and SK Hynix each losing around 9%.

Nikkei extends losing streak to four sessions: Japan’s benchmark dropped 2.6% to 67,206.79 in early trading, heading for a fourth consecutive daily decline.

Treasury yields retreat as investors seek safety: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell five basis points to 5.19%, pulling back from last week’s 24-year high of 5.364% as demand for safe-haven assets increased. Persistent inflation and heavy government borrowing, however, continue to cloud the outlook.

Dollar weakens as yields ease: The US dollar index slipped 0.2% to 102.39, while the euro rose to $1.1177, sterling climbed to $1.3219 and the yen strengthened to 158.215 per dollar. The Australian dollar held at $0.6960 after RBA minutes indicated another rate increase remained possible this year.

Oil falls while gold gains ahead of US inflation data: Brent crude dropped 1.4% to $105.20 a barrel amid the prospect of additional Russian diesel supplies, despite continued attacks on energy infrastructure. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,185.69 an ounce as investors awaited Wednesday’s US inflation figures.

IMF flags growing risks to global financial stability: The IMF warned that an AI-driven market correction, a sharp rise in government bond yields or a major cyberattack could trigger financial stress. Its report also highlighted the growing role of hyperscalers in debt markets, with the companies accounting for 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, up from less than 1% in 2024.

Nasdaq 100 comes further off record highs

The Nasdaq 100 continues to come off its recent record highs at 31,361 and nears last week's low at 30,556. If this level were to be fallen through, the late June high at 30,329 would likely be reached and probably the mid-August peak at 30,196 as well.

On the flip side, a bullish reversal and rise above Friday's 30,947 high could lead to another record high being made. Next up is potentially the 100% Fibonacci extension of the April-to-October 2025 advance -  projected higher from the March 2026 low - at 32,481.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 9 October 30,947 high

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 28 September low at 30,081

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY tests 200-day simple moving average

USD/JPY's recovery from its ¥152.88 early September low is grappling with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at ¥158.53 which acts as resistance. If this week's high at ¥158.75 were to be bettered, the late September high ¥159.04 would likely be next in line. A rise above this level may lead to the mid-August-to-early September highs at ¥159.78-to-¥160.39 also being reached.

Minor support may be spotted around the 8 October low at ¥157.52. Were the next lower early October low at ¥156.95 to be slid through, the late September low at ¥156.38 would likely be revisited instead. Further down lies good support around the early August ¥155.23 low.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 8 October low at ¥157.52

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while above the 28 September low at ¥156.38

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude pushes higher

Brent Crude is rising further still, having so far hit a one month high at $109.83. If exceeded, the September peak at $111.45 would be expected to be revisited.

Minor support may now be spotted between the 24 September-to-early October highs at $107.22-to-$106.95, ahead of Monday's $104.79 low. If slipped through, another down leg may be in the making with the July-to-October uptrend line at $101.44 being back in sight. Further down lie the July-to-August highs at $96.19-to-$95.48.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 12 October low at $104.79

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 4 September $95.16 low

Brent crude daily candlestick chart