Dow runs out of steam, EUR/JPY stays sidelined and US natural gas tests resistance

Macro Update

Asian markets stabilise after Nvidia leadership shake-up: Regional equities found firmer ground on Friday after Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia chief executive following revelations of extramarital affairs, including one involving a suspected Chinese spy. Chief financial officer Colette Kress was named interim CEO, while Nvidia shares fell 3% in extended trading after its market value slipped below $4tn for the first time since July 2025.

Nikkei set for strongest weekly gain in five months: Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.25% to 61,576.91 and was on course for a 7.3% weekly advance, led by semiconductor stocks including Advantest and Tokyo Electron. The broader Topix was also heading for its strongest week since mid-August 2024.

South Korean stocks surge as chipmakers shrug off Nvidia shock: The Kospi climbed 2.4% to 5,471.09 and was set for a 7.9% weekly gain, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each rising more than 2.6%. Foreign investors were also net buyers for a fourth consecutive session.

Treasury yields climb as traders raise Fed hike expectations: The US two-year yield reached a one-month high, while the 10-year yield hit a three-week peak of 5.14% as markets priced a 14.5% probability of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve hike in December. The move put the dollar on course for its strongest weekly gain in more than a month and kept the yen near 160 per dollar.

Oil set for second straight weekly decline as Iran blockade persists: Brent crude held at $95.41 a barrel, while WTI slipped 0.25% to $88.52 after President Trump said a deal with Iran was not required to end the war, signalling that the US blockade would continue. An unexpected 4.7 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories added further pressure, leaving Brent on track for a 2.4% weekly fall.

Gold rebounds on bargain hunting but remains headed for weekly loss: Spot gold gained 1% to $3,915.31 an ounce after falling to its lowest level since October 2025, although it remained down 3.5% for the week as higher rate expectations weighed on bullion. Investors were now awaiting US producer price data due later in the day.

Dow Jones recovery runs out of steam

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's recovery off its 50,998 one-month low is losing upside momentum with perhaps the 23 October low at 52,060 being revisited in the days ahead.

Were a rise and daily chart close above the 12 November high at 52,756 to be seen, though, the 22 October high at 52,933 would likely be eyed.

Short-term outlook: neutral while below the 22 October high at 52,933 but above the 6 November 50,998 low

Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 5 November high at 53,716

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

EUR/JPY continues to range trade

EUR/JPY remains within a sideways trading band below its ¥178.48 early November one-month high and its October lows at ¥175.10-to-¥175.08.

Minor resistance sits at the mid-September ¥177.37 low, followed by the 10 November high at ¥177.71 and the mid-October high at ¥177.96. Immediate support comes in between the 6-to-12 November lows at ¥176.25-to-¥176.16.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 4 November ¥178.48 high

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bearish undertone while below the 18 September high at ¥181.55

EUR/JPY daily candlestick chart

US natural gas futures probe key resistance

US natural gas futures are digging into the 317.3-to-319.4 key resistance area which caps at present. If broken through, the 8 July peak at 320.7 and early March-to-June highs at 322.8-to-322.9 would likely be reached next.

Good support may be spotted around the late October high at 296.2.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the October-to-November uptrend line

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a strong bullish undertone while above the 24 April 235.1 low but below the 9 March 322.9 high, a rise above the latter would turn our forecast bullish

US natural gas daily candlestick chart