Apple shrugs off the tech sell-off – but can earnings justify the share price?
While much of tech has stumbled, Apple heads into results near its 52-week high – which raises the bar rather than lowering the risk.
Why Apple stands apart from the tech sell-off
While much of the tech sector has spent recent weeks being marked down, Apple has gone the other way, climbing 28.3% this year to $348.91. That leaves it a whisker below its 52-week high of $351.73 and comfortably above the mean analyst price target of $327.42, which suggests the analysts have either been overtaken by events or are simply too polite to downgrade. Apple therefore heads into fiscal fourth-quarter results as the market’s safe pair of hands, with consensus pointing to revenue of $113.4bn, up roughly 10.7% from $102.5bn a year earlier, along with EPS of $1.99 and a gross margin of 47.5%.
The iPhone is expected to bring in $56.5bn, roughly half of total sales. Counterpoint data shows iPhone 18 Pro sales running 3.1% ahead of the 17 Pro in the first three weeks, a figure flattered by a 29% surge in China that offsets a 4% drop in the US and a 27% slide in Japan. Services, forecast at $31.6bn, remains the margin engine. Macs are expected to add $9.6bn just as new CEO John Ternus rolls out M6 MacBook Pros, new iMacs and Apple’s first touchscreen OLED MacBook Pro.
Being the last one standing comes at a price
Guidance that holds margins above 47% would likely reassure investors that the rally rests on more than reputation. Even so, a forward P/E of 36.2x and four downward EPS revisions against one upgrade in the past month mean a merely solid quarter could be met by sellers. Safety, it turns out, comes at a premium.
Apple share price – technical analysis
While other tech stocks have come under pressure, Apple continues to make headway, reaching a new record high this week. A broader market stumble may see it reverse to test the early October low at $328.
A break below and then an unsuccessful retest of $320 might suggest that the price is entering a more sustained correction.
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