FTSE 100 gunning for record high as GBP/USD rallies, gold price stalls    

​​​Macro Update

​Oil sinks further as Trump delays fresh Iran strikes: Brent crude fell 1% to $91.56 a barrel, its lowest level since early September, extending Monday’s 5.85% slide after Trump said he would postpone further military strikes against Iran following appeals from regional leaders. Brent is now around 22% below its six-month high of $118 reached on 30 October, although the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.

​Wall Street rebounds sharply as cheaper oil eases inflation fears: The S&P 500 jumped 2.35% to 7,549.94, its biggest one-day gain since 8 April, while the Nasdaq rose 2.74% and the Dow gained 2.15% to 52,389.75. All 11 S&P sectors advanced, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.9% after plunging 12% last week, led by AMD and Broadcom, which gained 13.3% and 8.8% respectively.

​Nvidia drops as scrutiny of AI trade intensifies: Nvidia fell 4.2% to its lowest closing level since 7 April after its board said it was investigating whether chief executive Jensen Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation. Investors were also awaiting CoreWeave’s results this week, while Anthropic was expected to begin an IPO roadshow that could raise nearly $70bn.

​Asian technology shares bounce as risk appetite returns: Japan’s Nikkei climbed 2.87%, recovering Friday’s near-6% decline, with SoftBank jumping 13.88% and Tokyo Electron rising 6.05%. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 4%, while MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index advanced 1.5% from last week’s seven-month low and European stock futures pointed 0.7% higher.

​Dollar holds steady as markets await US inflation data: The dollar stabilised in Asian trading after falling on Monday, when the euro rose 0.7% to $1.1220. Sterling traded at $1.3441 following the Bank of England’s first rate increase in three years last week, while the yen hovered around 158 per dollar and the Australian dollar stood at $0.6918.

​Markets turn to CPI after oil-driven relief rally: Investors shifted their focus to upcoming US inflation data as lower crude prices eased concerns over renewed price pressures and helped support risk assets. The softer oil market has also reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have greater scope to adjust interest rates if inflation continues to moderate.

​FTSE 100 targets July peak

​The FTSE 100 continues this week's advance and has its July-to-current November highs at 10,979-to-10,990 as well as the psychological 11,000 mark in its sights. On the way up the mid-October high at 10,893 and the late August peak at 10,925 may act as interim stumbling blocks, though.

​Support may now be found in the 10,787-to-10,775 region and, further down, in the 10,686-to-10,684 area.

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 4 November low at 10,513

​Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 4 November low at 10,513

​GBP/USD rallies towards six-week high

GBP/USD has resumed its advance towards its six weeks high at $1.3503. Together with the early August high at $1.3506 and the 25 May peak at $1.3509 it may act as resistance once more. If overcome, the mid-July high at $1.3558 may be reached next.

​Minor support may be spotted along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3416 and at the 21 September high at $1.3400.

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 November low at $1.3343

​Medium-term outlook: bullish, targeting the $1.3676 August peak while the $1.3273 late October low underpins

​Gold trades in two-week highs

​Spot gold's climb close to the $4,150.00 per troy ounce level is giving way to a minor slide with the early-to-mid-October lows at $4,073.54-to-$4,066.53 potentially being revisited. While the next lower 6 November low at $4,029.83 underpins, though, upside pressure should retain the upper hand.

​A rise above this week's $4,148.71 high may engage the October highs at $4,199.08-to-$4,227.53.

​Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 November low at $4,029.83

​Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 October low at $3,870.32