Skip to content

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Risk event for the week starting Monday 11 July: German ZEW; US CPI

With recent declines in EUR/USD, Daily FX's Nick Cawley wants to find a better price to enter a short position. Nick also looks at German business confidence and US inflation data which could disturb the trade.

Video poster image

(Video Transcript)

Short EUR/USD

Welcome, let's take a look now at a Risk Event for the week starting Monday 11th July.

And for this, we're now off to DailyFX to be joined by Nick Cawley. Nick, good to catch up with you. I know you're going to be talking about the EUR/USD.

As we are recording at the moment we are still awaiting non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, but I know this Risk Event is focused as well on next week's trade. Explain more about your thinking around this EUR/USD proposition.

Yeah good morning to you, Jeremy. There are a couple of, sort of, fairly big economic prints early next week which could affect the value of EUR/USD.

As you said, we have non-farm payrolls coming up today. But next Tuesday, we have the latest look at the ZEW readings for the Eurozone and for Germany, and they're expected to be even weaker. They did improve marginally last month, but in July, the numbers are expected to turn further negative, a euro negative.

And then on Wednesday, we have the latest look at the latest American inflation, the US CPI, which is expected to nudge a tickle higher.

EUR/USD chart

So the trade that I'm looking to do is I'm looking to go short EUR/USD, but I'm finding it difficult at current levels.

If you look at the daily chart, what we can see here is that when we had a technical break of the $1.0340 level, which we saw on Tuesday, we saw quite a sharp reaction. And now $1.0340 becomes fairly solid resistance. So what I'd be looking to do is I'd be looking to try and get a short of the EUR/USD around one of these events, either the NFP today, ZEW on Tuesday, or CPI on Wednesday, around the $1.0280 level.

If we get a bounce back to around the $1.0280 level, get a short in there, I'd have a stop-loss around the $1.0360 level. And my target would be parity as I think parity is still very much on the cards for EUR/USD.

Interesting proposition that, Nick. Very, very briefly, a lot of people now beginning to talk about parity. Is there a sort of a magnetic attraction, do you think, to this possibly now?

Yeah, I do think there is. And I think that you will probably get some quite interesting price action as you get to parity as well. As you say, I think that there has got this magnetic attraction. And yeah, I think quite a few people are geared up for this move and I do believe it's likely. We'll have to see what happens.

Nick, thanks very much indeed, have a good weekend. That's the Risk Event for the week starting Monday 11th July.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Start trading forex today

Find opportunity on the world’s most-traded – and most-volatile – financial market.

  • Trade spreads from just 0.6 points on EUR/USD
  • Analyse with clear, fast charts
  • Speculate wherever you are with our intuitive mobile apps

See an FX opportunity?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re onto something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Get spreads from just 0.6 points on popular pairs
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See an FX opportunity?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take your position.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Equities
  • Indices
  • Forex
  • Commodities
website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

" >


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.