Look Ahead to 31/08: China manufacturing data; Euro Zone inflation; US jobless claims; UBS, Dell earnings
The focus on Thursday 31 August will be on the latest US jobless claims, Euro Zone inflation data for August, as well as China manufacturing and services PMIs. IGTV’s Angela Barnes has this overview.
Japanese industrial data expected
Hello and welcome to the IG's Look Ahead to Thursday 31 August 2023. I'm Angela Barnes and you're watching IGTV.
Let's bring you up to date with what's happening tomorrow and starting with the economic data that's due out. And we begin in Japan because that's where industrial production data will be released in the early hours. For July it's expected to fall for over a month by 1.4% and staying in Japan we'll also have retail sales figures for the same month which are expected to rise 5.4% year-over-year.
China PMIs, German sales data on the way
Then let's move on to China because at 2.30am we'll also get the latest manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for August. Manufacturing is expected to rise to 49.5% and non-manufacturing to fall to 51% months-over-month.
Let's just bring up Germany as well, because there are retail sales coming out from there at 7am for July and they're expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.8% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year. And also staying in Germany, we'll then have the German unemployment rate for August. The consensus is that it will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% month-over-month.
At 10am, we get flash Euro Zone inflation data for August. Prices are expected to rise 5.1% year over year. Looking at the euro-US dollar euro/US dollar price chart. The euro has eased against the dollar as investors looked into more labour market data in the US and inflation data in the Euro Zone to provide clues on the path for central bank policies.
The markets are expecting now a September rate hike by the European Central Bank, pricing at a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point move.
Dollar on skid row
The dollar, meanwhile, we've been watching and there's a slump yesterday and again today after a slide in US job openings. We had ADP job figures today too showing US job growth slowed sharply in August and now we're looking ahead to the monthly nonfarm payrolls report which will be on Friday. Tune in for our Look Ahead for more details on that one later in the week.
Let's move on now: also in the US at 1.30pm tomorrow, we will have personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data for July. Prices are set to rise to 3.2% year-over-year and to remain unchanged at 0.2% month-over-month. At 1.30pm, the US will also be looking out for the latest initial jobless claims for the week ending 26 August, which are expected to come in at 235,000.
UBS shares on the incline
Moving on, let's have a look at the corporate calendar and what's in store for tomorrow. We've got, in Switzerland, UBS Group second-quarter earnings. The Swiss bank UBS is releasing its earnings.
In March, you'll remember, UBS agreed to a $3.4 billion government-supported merger with its rival Credit Suisse in response to concerns of the future of Credit Suisse following a raft of scandals, financial woes and deposit outflows. UBS said it was rushed into the rescue deal at the time with only a few days to carry out due diligence.
Let's look at the UBS price chart here. Since the deal was announced in March, UBS's shares have been under pressure but since the acquisition was completed and reported on 12 June you can see that its share price steadily gained and it's currently trading 0.48% higher today, so we'll be keeping across that stock tomorrow as well
Corporate earnings from Broadcom, Dell, Dollar General
In other corporate earnings tomorrow, we've also got Q3 results from Broadcom and it'll be the company's third-quarter results. We'll also have Q2 earnings from Dell and Dollar General as well reporting second-quarter earnings.
That's all we've got on the calendar for tomorrow’s economic and corporate outlook. Do stay tuned and keep an eye on our IG platforms for more updates. Subscribe to our YouTube channel and we'll be posting on Instagram Threads and Twitter with plenty more news. Thank you very much for watching IGTV.
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