Will the FTSE 100 spike after a weekend of stagnation?
The FTSE 100 index was down on July 3, but consumer spending could cause a spike on Monday, suggesting weekend trades may prove profitable.
There seems to be little in the way of positives for the FTSE 100 heading into what could be a quiet weekend. Although parts of the British economy are set to kick back into life on 4 July, the government seems to be adopting a wait-and-see strategy.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that his summer statement won’t include any big tax cuts. However, with little else in the way of news, traders could be set to mimic Sunak’s approach.
The lack of political action has hurt the FTSE 100's price. The market opened at 6,240.36 on 3 July but quickly went into a downward spiral. By lunchtime, the index had dropped to 6,151.90 before making a slight recovery to 6,166.20 just after 14:40 (BST).
Looking towards the weekend UK 100 markets on IG, no significant changes are predicted. Friday’s closing price (6,144.82) suggests Sunak’s tax position has spooked investors. However, the overall market sentiment seems to suggest no one is willing to commit too heavily one way or the other until he makes his summer budget speech.
Lack of major events suggest weekend of relative stagnation
Sunak’s decision to tread water for at least the next two days is compounded by a US public holiday. With businesses and trading suspended during the 4 July holiday period, little is likely to change on either side of the Atlantic over the weekend. Therefore, the downward trend observed on 3 July is unlikely to shift dramatically when markets reopen on Monday. A weekend plateau should carry through to the early part of next week.
However, what could be interesting to track before the FTSE 100 reopens on 6 July is the leisure and retail sectors. With the two-metre social distancing rule effectively cut in half and various parts of both sectors reopening, high-street activity should increase over the weekend. If the post-lockdown revelry translates into a sales spike, it could be a good time to invest in the FTSE 100.
By taking advantage of the weekend trading options at IG, traders can use the wait-and-see strategy to get ahead of the market on Monday. In essence, if retail, restaurant and hospitality giants like Next and the Compass Group enjoy a profitable weekend, it could give the FTSE 100 price a boost. Conversely, if talk of local lockdowns deters consumers from heading out, this week’s FTSE 100 price spiral will continue.
Watch for FTSE 100 price to spike if consumers spend
By this measure, next week’s trading conditions won’t be determined by politicians or big businesses but consumers. A sense of freedom should give the economy a boost, even if it’s nothing more than a fleeting spike. By the close of play on 4 July, it will be clear if this is the case or not. If so, investing in the FTSE 100 over the weekend could be a positive move.
Sunak has already said he’ll wait and see how things play out. A return to something like normality could prompt a more favourable budget. This, combined with a renewed optimism among businesses and consumers, could see the recent losses turn to gains. At worst, the markets will remain flat this weekend. However, if people take the streets in their droves, don’t be surprised if the FTSE 100 price spikes on Monday.
How to trade the FTSE 100 this weekend
Did you know? You can trade forex and indices like the FTSE 100 during Saturday and Sunday with IG. Our world-leading trading platform is the only solution to offer weekend trading on indices.
Whether you want to go long (buy) or short (sell) the FTSE 100 based on the above outlook, you don’t have to wait until the markets reopen on Monday to trade.
The weekend prices for indices and forex are quoted separately to their weekday counterparts, based on our view of the prospects for that market given client business and news flow. As a result, you can use these markets to hedge against risk on your weekday positions.
The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer.
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