Cocoa price under pressure: $5,000 support faces key test

Cocoa prices fell more than 5% on Thursday to around $5,180 per tonne, bringing the $5,000 support level into focus. Holding this level would keep a recovery within the trading range established since July in play. A break below it would increase the risk of a deeper correction. Seasonality offers some encouragement: historically, early November has often marked the start of a stronger period.

Cocoa technical analysis: $5,000 support takes centre stage

Since reaching around $6,820 in September, cocoa has formed lower highs. The IG daily chart shows the price below its 100-day exponential moving average and the monthly pivot point near $5,500. The RSI remains below the neutral 50 level, signalling subdued momentum.

The immediate focus is the support zone between $5,000 and $5,064. A daily close below this area would bring the next support zone, between $4,634 and $4,837, into focus. The May high at $4,775 also sits within this range.

To stabilise the technical outlook, cocoa would first need to reclaim $5,305, followed by resistance starting at $5,537. A move above $6,125 would provide a stronger recovery signal and could open the way towards the previous highs between $6,470 and $6,820.

Cocoa daily chart: $5,000 support in focus

Cocoa seasonality: historical strength into mid-December

Seasonax’s 25-year analysis provides a positive counterpoint to the weaker technical picture. Between 6 November and 14 December, cocoa posted gains in 18 of the 25 years analysed, equivalent to 72% of observations.

The average return over this period was 5.26%, while the median return was 4.22%. This historical pattern supports the possibility of a recovery towards year-end. However, seasonal strength does not guarantee gains, and confirmation from price action remains essential.

Cocoa seasonality: historical performance from 6 November to 14 December

Cocoa (New York): Five-Year Price Performance