Palladium jumps 6 percent as recovery faces key tests

Palladium extends its recovery on Wednesday, rising around 6% to approximately $1,087 per troy ounce. The advance brings its gain since 4 November to roughly 16%. After a sharp sell-off, the metal is showing early signs of stabilisation. A broader trend reversal remains unconfirmed, however, with the price still below its falling 100-day EMA and key Fibonacci resistance levels.

Why the palladium price is rising

A weaker dollar after the US midterms supported the initial rebound, with palladium already rising sharply on 4 November. On 11 November, palladium, gold and silver recover after the inflation-driven pullback. Higher US rate expectations remain a headwind. 

Short covering may have amplified the move.  COT analysis showed speculative palladium positions were net short as of 3 November. Closing these positions as prices rise creates additional buying pressure, without necessarily signalling a lasting improvement in industrial demand. 

Supply risks provide a fundamental backdrop. In late October, Nornickel said a furnace overhaul could affect production in 2027 and possibly 2028. It reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, with palladium output expected at the upper end of the range.

The demand outlook remains subdued. In their September report, Heraeus and SFA Oxford forecast a palladium deficit of 345,000 ounces for 2026, alongside weaker automotive demand and increased recycling. A projected deficit alone is therefore insufficient to establish a lasting price reversal. 

Holding above 1000 dollars is the first test

An initial base has been developing near $920 since early November. Palladium has already reclaimed the psychologically important $1,000 level during the subsequent recovery.

The immediate question is whether the price can hold above it. A renewed break below this threshold would weaken the stabilisation and bring the recent low area back into view.

The resistance levels that could shape the rebound

The next major hurdle is $1,133.95, corresponding to the 61.8% level on the Fibonacci scale drawn on the chart. A sustained daily close above this level would strengthen the recovery and open the way towards the falling 100-day exponential moving average, currently near $1,200.

Clearing that dynamic resistance would bring $1,268.23 into focus. This is the 38.2% level on the same Fibonacci scale. A move above this area would further improve the medium-term technical picture. A more convincing trend reversal would also require a subsequent sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

The 34-period RSI provides an additional momentum check. It is recovering but remains below the 48.5 threshold used in this analysis. A move above that filter would add confirmation, particularly if it coincides with a break through the price resistance levels.

Palladium daily chart

Palladium: Five-Year Price Performance