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EUR/USD hits 19-month low: 1.0946 in focus
EUR/USD is trading around $1.1052, near its lowest level since April 2025. The break below the previously discussed trading range extends the broader downtrend, turning the recent consolidation into a fresh bearish technical signal.
Dollar strength adds to the pressure. Stronger-than-expected US inflation figures and growing expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate increases are supporting the US currency.
Bearish rectangle activates downside target
The breakdown from the bearish rectangle activates a measured-move target near 1.0946. This is calculated by projecting the height of the trading range downwards from the breakout level. The psychological 1.1000 mark is the first level to watch on the way.
The 34-period RSI remains below the 48.5 threshold used in this analysis, signalling weak momentum. Price also remains below the falling 100-day EMA, reinforcing the broader bearish picture.
Unless EUR/USD sustainably reclaims 1.1100, the downside scenario remains in focus. A stronger recovery would require a move back above the former range floor around 1.1120. Even then, the initial rebound would represent a countertrend move within the broader decline.
EUR/USD daily chart: rectangle breakdown extends the downtrend
EUR/USD: long and short setups
| Scenario | Trigger | Potential targets | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long: technical rebound | Daily close above approximately 1.1120, followed by a successful retest of the reclaimed zone | 1.1200, followed by 1.1280 | A renewed break below 1.1100 |
| Short: trend continuation | A rebound into 1.1100–1.1120 fails and selling pressure resumes | 1.1000, followed by 1.0946 | A sustained move above approximately 1.1120, back into the former range |
EUR/USD: Five Year Price Performance
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