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Uber earnings preview: what’s the outlook heading into Q4 results?

We examine some of the key things investors need to know ahead of Uber’s fourth quarter earnings release.

Uber share price Source: Bloomberg

Uber share price: a wild ride

When Uber first listed on the NYSE in May 2019, it traded for a little over US$40 per share. Yet for all of the company’s high flying ambitions, its stock struggled in the months after going public, dropping to a low of US$25.99 per share by November 2019.

Since then however, the stock has rebounded – leaning into a broader rally among global equities.

Mind you, the Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) share price now trades ~42% higher than those November-lows, with optimism around the stock looking to have improved.

Uber currently has a market capitalisation of US$63.10 billion.

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When will Uber report its results?

Uber Technologies (UBER) is expected to report its latest, fourth quarter FY19 results on 6 February, after the market close.

What analysts are expecting from Q4

Though Uber’s share price has ran higher in recent months, analysts still expect the technology company to struggle with profitability in the FY19 fourth quarter.

In saying that, on the top-line, analysts are anticipating a slight improvement, with Uber expected to report Q4 revenues of US$3.699 billion. In Q3, Uber recorded revenues of US$3.533 billion.

Though analysts are expecting a revenue boost in Q4, earnings estimates look less favourable. Here, analysts are expecting negative earnings (EBITDA) of -US$717.17 million in Q4.

This represents a significant increase on Uber’s third quarter loss of -US$585 million.

As a consequence of this, fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) estimates remain negative, pegged to come in at -0.605 per share – on an adjusted basis.

In Q3, Uber reported EPS figures of -0.445 per share – also on an adjusted basis.

The longer-term view

Though the Uber share price has struggled to find its footing since listing, the stock remains overwhelmingly liked by analysts, with 70.7% of analysts rating the stock a ‘buy’ and 29.3% rating the stock a ‘hold’, according to Bloomberg Data.

No analysts currently rate the stock a sell.

In addition to that, analysts appear to be expecting further upside from current price levels for the ride-sharing company. On average, Uber has a 12-month target share price of US$45.28 – which at current levels would imply potential upside of around 22.4%, according to Bloomberg Data.

Freedom Finance’s analyst Erlan Abdikarimov is by far the most bullish analyst on Uber’s prospects – hitting the stock with a ‘buy’ rating and a lofty price target of US$63.80 per share.

On the other end of the spectrum, Piper Sandler & Co is the most bearish. That firm currently has a ‘neutral’ rating and a 12-month price target of US$26.00 per share on Uber Technologies.

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