FX snapshot – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD

Greek affairs make European currencies a difficult market to trade in, yet the likes of NZD/USD and USD/CAD appear to retain stronger trends and thus a more stable environment.

New Zealand dollar notes
Source: Bloomberg

Greek crisis continues to push EUR/USD lower

The euro has been a highly volatile and unpredictable currency over recent weeks, and this week appears to be no different. The gap lower at the start of play this week failed to replicate last week where it took back all of the weekend losses and more. Instead we have seen the price move back into Friday’s range and sell off at an inside trendline. I do expect EUR/USD to perform in a similar manner to the DAX, and that is for further losses.

The $1.1 handle is a major support level to watch out for which has held up the price so far this week. However, while I am bearish, I would be hesitant in trading EUR/USD simply due to the fact that it is hugely impacted by unscheduled Greek announcements, which means that there is little chance of mitigating and planning for any adverse fundamental impacts to your trades.

GBP/USD bounce from support zone short-lived

Yesterday saw GBP/USD bounce higher from the triangle support zone I have been watching recently. However, with the price having turned lower upon seeing a doji candle, we are now trending back towards the support zone. Given that yesterday’s peak was formed below Friday’s, we remain within a clear downward trending market in the near term, and as such I am not calling a reversal at the $1.555 support. However, should the price fail to push below yesterday’s $1.5532 low, then it could signal a possible moment of turning in GBP/USD. Nevertheless, I remain bearish unless that happens, and as such today’s session seems likely to be another one in the red.

NZD/USD remains one of the clearest trends you are likely to see

The NZD/USD pair continues to trend downwards in near enough a straight line. It may seem boring to some, but these are the kinds of markets that people make money in and we are lucky that such a market exists considering the unpredictability of European indices and currencies. The move below $0.6662 today is likely to lead towards further losses and as such I consider this my favourite market at the moment. 

USD/CAD seems destined for bigger things

Yesterday saw USD/CAD break above the recent resistance point of C$1.2634, bringing with it a renewed bullish tone for the pair. The move higher in recent weeks has got a clear target in mind here, with the mid-March peak of C$1.2835 in sight. However, it is also worth watching out for the 100% Fibonacci expansion, derived from the May trough and peak, accompanied by the June low that followed. As such, I expect to see USD/CAD continue its ascendancy towards C$1.277 and C$1.2835, with near-term support of C$1.2634 likely to hold.  

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