Day five: potential AUD/USD trade

Yesterday’s Australian Q1 CAPEX figures contained both positive and negative ramifactions for the Australian economy.

While real CAPEX fell a further 4.2% q/q, there were signs that the outlook is not as bad as what was feared.

The fact that the AUD rallied across the G10 currency space was testament to the fact that the 2014/15 second estimate on capital expenditure intensions was lifted to $137 billion, with the market expecting this figure to print $128 billion.

Other details showed that the transition to better growth from the non-mining space is happening, albeit slowly and while the headline CAPEX report was poor, the finer detials were actually better than expected.

Technically the pair printed a sizeable bullish key day reversal and this implies there is a real possibilty the pair goes on to test the former uptrend at 0.9355. The overnight high was 0.9313, so with my stop at 0.9315 I am still in the trade, but only just.

Stochastics on the daily chart have pushed above the 20 level and it will be interesting to see if this can gather momentum or break down again, but techincally it seems after starting out well the trade is getting away from me.

AUD/NZD is very interesting and looks like a really good way of playing AUD strength, with the pair breaking the June 2013 downtrend and now eyeing the 200-day moving average just shy of the 1.10 level.


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