Week commencing
13 April 2026

Relief rally gains traction amid fragile ceasefire

United States (US) equity markets are on track for a second consecutive week of gains. The bulk of this week’s upside followed President Trump’s announcement of a two week ceasefire with Iran, a development that eased immediate fears of a broader regional conflict and paved the way for formal peace talks scheduled for Friday in Pakistan.

Locally, the ASX 200 has advanced more than 4% this week, poised for a third straight weekly gain. This rally lifted the benchmark index to within 2.5% of its all‑time high of 9202, as the combination of geopolitical de escalation and improved global sentiment provided a strong tailwind for the heavyweight materials and financial sectors.

However, with the ceasefire still appearing fragile and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining notably limited, markets will be closely monitoring the upcoming negotiations in Pakistan for any concrete signs of lasting progress or a potential renewal of tensions.

The week that was: highlights

• The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March came in at 54.0, missing the 55.0 consensus forecast and easing from the prior month’s 56.1
• US durable goods orders for February declined 1.4% month-on-month (MoM), marking a sharper contraction than the prior month’s 0.5% fall
• Excluding transportation, US durable goods orders rose 0.8% MoM, exceeding the 0.5% consensus forecast and the prior month’s 0.3% rise
• Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3.0% year-on-year (YoY) in February, matching expectations and easing from 3.1% in January
• Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 for the week ending 4 April, above the 210,000 consensus and the largest increase in a month
• Japan’s (JP) current account for February came in at ¥3933 billion, well above the prior ¥942 billion and the ¥3549 billion consensus forecast
• Japanese household spending for February contracted 1.8% YoY, missing the 0.7% consensus and the prior month’s 1.0% decline
• In the euro area, retail sales for February declined 0.2% MoM, matching expectations and easing from the prior month’s flat reading
• The United Kingdom’s (UK) Halifax house price index rose 0.8% YoY in March, below the prior month’s 1.2% reading and the 1.5% consensus forecast
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.25% and struck a hawkish tone
• WTI crude oil fell 11.23% to $99.01
• The US dollar index (DXY) fell 1.26% to 98.91
• Bitcoin rose 4.33% to $71,963
• Gold gained 1.85% to $4762
• Wall Street’s volatility index (VIX) fell to 19.48 from 23.87 the previous week.

Key dates for the week ahead

Australia & New Zealand

• AU – Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Hauser speech: Tuesday, 14 April at 8.45am AEDT
• AU – Westpac consumer confidence: Tuesday, 14 April at 10.30am AEDT
• AU – NAB business confidence: Tuesday, 14 April at 11.30am AEDT
• AU – RBA Hauser speech: Thursday, 16 April at 6.00am AEDT
• AU – labour force: Thursday, 16 April at 11.30am AEDT
• AU – RBA Hunter speech: Friday, 17 April at 4.30am AEDT

China & Japan

• CN – new yuan loans: Monday, 13 April (no time given)
• CN – balance of trade: Tuesday, 14 April at 1.00pm AEDT
• CN – house price index: Thursday, 16 April at 11.30am AEDT
• CN – gross domestic product (GDP): Thursday, 16 April at 12.00pm AEDT
• CN – industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment: Thursday, 16 April at 12.00pm AEDT
• JP – inflation: Saturday, 18 April at 9.30am AEDT

United States

• US – existing home sales: Tuesday, 14 April at 12.00am AEDT
• US – producer price index (PPI): Tuesday, 14 April at 10.30pm AEDT
• US – NAHB housing market index: Thursday, 16 April at 12.00am AEDT
• US – initial jobless claims: Thursday, 16 April at 10.30pm AEDT
• US – industrial production MoM: Thursday, 16 April at 11.15pm AEDT

Europe & United Kingdom

• UK – Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey: Wednesday, 15 April at 2.00am AEDT
• UK – GDP: Thursday, 16 April at 4.00pm AEDT

Key events for the week ahead

US: Core PPI

Date: Tuesday, 14 April at 10.30pm AEDT

In the latest reading, February’s core PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.5% MoM, exceeding the 0.3% consensus forecast. This followed a revised 0.8% rise in January. On an annual basis, core PPI accelerated to 3.9% YoY, the highest reading in 13 months and above the 3.7% consensus forecast, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

For March, consensus expectations point to a further 0.5% MoM rise, which would see the annual rate approach 4%. With initial relief from the US–Iran ceasefire giving way to renewed uncertainty around the agreement and limited shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, any upside surprise could reinforce persistent pipeline inflation pressures and support the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious, data dependent approach to monetary policy.

This week’s geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East has allowed US interest rate markets to subtly shift, once again pricing in a 30% chance of a Fed rate cut before year-end.

US Core PPI chart

AU: Labour force

Date: Thursday, 16 April at 11.30am AEDT

February employment rose by a solid 48,900, comfortably beating the 20,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate edged higher from 4.1% to 4.3%, driven largely by a participation rate that climbed to a four‑month high of 66.9%.

Overall, the print highlighted a reversion of recent trends, with both job growth and measures of spare capacity increasing simultaneously. This aligns more closely with the RBA’s February forecasts and is unlikely to materially shift the central bank’s view that labour market conditions remain somewhat tight.

For March, expectations point to a more modest employment gain of around 15,000, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%. A broadly resilient outcome would keep the Reserve Bank’s focus on wages growth and persistent inflation risks. By contrast, a materially weaker result, particularly an unemployment rate of 4.5% or higher, would significantly reduce expectations for further rate hikes later in the year.

As it stands, the Australian interest rate market is set to finish the week pricing in around 16 baisis points (bp) of tightening for the upcoming May Board meeting, with a cumulative 53 bp of hikes currently priced in across 2026.

Australian unemployment rate chart

CN: GDP

Date: Thursday, 16 April at 12.00 pm AEDT

In the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), GDP expanded 4.5% YoY, the weakest pace in two years as subdued consumption and investment continued to weigh, despite resilient export demand.

Consensus forecasts point to a modest lift to around 4.8% in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), supported by early‑year industrial momentum and the initial impact of policy measures aimed at stabilising domestic demand. 

A reading in line with expectations or better would be taken as a positive for risk sentiment and the China complex, whereas any downside miss would intensify calls for additional stimulus from Beijing.

China GDP annual growth rate chart

US Q1 2026 earnings season

Next week kicks off the US Q1 2026 earnings season, led as usual by the banking giants: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Citigroup. Beyond the big banks, keep an eye out for reports from Netflix, TSMC, Charles Schwab and Alcoa also hitting the wires.