The ASX 200 is trading lower in afternoon trade as a refinery outage, elevated rate expectations and mixed offshore signals offset strength in technology stocks.
The Australia 200 trades30 points (-0.34%) lower at 8948 as of 2.00pm AEST.
For a third consecutive session, the ASX 200 briefly pushed above the 9000 level after the opening bell, only to find the air at that altitude too thin. The index has since retreated back to around 8950, a level where it has found greater comfort in recent sessions.
The ASX 200’s pullback came despite another night of robust gains on Wall Street. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq 100 posted a fresh record high and extended its winning streak to 11 consecutive sessions as optimism around a potential permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran lifted risk sentiment.
Turning to this week's key domestic economic data, the Australian labour force report for March was released this morning and broadly met expectations. Employment rose by 17,900 jobs, close to the 20,000 gain forecast, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% as the participation rate eased slightly to 66.8%.
The data suggest the labour market remains resilient for now, although it is worth noting the survey was conducted in the first half of the month, prior to the worst impacts of recent fuel supply disruptions. Looking ahead, the key question will be how employment responds to a likely slowdown in domestic demand over the coming months.
Resilient labour market conditions will keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) focused on inflation risks, with markets pricing in around 18 basis points (bp) of tightening for the May meeting, now less than three weeks away. A third rate rise this year would further crimp credit demand, creating a headwind for the major banks.
In offshore data, figures released today showed China’s economy expanded 5% year-on-year (YoY) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, accelerating from 4.5% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025 and exceeding expectations for 4.8% growth.
The stronger growth print followed weak housing data, with China’s new house price index falling 3.4% year on year in March. This marked a 33rd consecutive month of contraction and the steepest decline since May 2025, highlighting Beijing’s ongoing struggle to stabilise the property sector.
The broader market’s weakness appears to have gathered pace after reports emerged of a fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery. The facility, which supplies around 10% of Australia’s fuel requirements, is expected to disrupt production for anywhere between three weeks and three months.
This incident comes at a sensitive time, with the Australian Government already working to shore up fuel security amid pressure from the Middle East conflict. That geopolitical tension has pushed fuel prices higher, weighing on consumer and business confidence.
It was no surprise that the ASX 200 information technology (IT) sector rose to a five‑week high today, providing further evidence of basing after a severe 51% pullback from its September 2025 record high.
From its all‑time high of 9202.9 in late February, the ASX 200 fell 940 points, or 10.2%, to a low of 8262 on 23 March. That session produced a clear capitulation candle, marking a potential exhaustion point.
Last week’s strong 4.44% rally, which lifted the index back above the psychologically important 9000 level, has reinforced the view that the 8262 low marked the end of the correction and that the broader uptrend remains intact. A sustained break above resistance at 9000 - 9020 would open the path towards a retest of the all‑time high at 9202.9. A decisive move beyond that level would then target the next major zone at 9400 - 9500.
On the downside, solid support sits near 8800, reinforced by the 200‑day moving average, which is currently positioned at 8791.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.