ASX 200 report:
5 May 2026

The Australia 200 trades 36 points (-0.41%) lower at 8661 as of 3.30pm AEST.

RBA rate hike extends ASX 200 losing streak

The ASX 200 is on track for a tenth losing session in the past 11 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a 25 basis points (bp) rate hike, taking the cash rate to 4.35%. The decision, which landed broadly in line with market expectations, was delivered via an 8-1 vote, with one member preferring to hold rates steady. This marks the RBA’s third interest rate rise this year, fully unwinding last year’s 75 bp of rate cuts.

Compared with the March statement, the Board’s language was noticeably firmer on the inflation outlook. They explicitly noted that many firms are already looking to pass on higher costs, short‑term inflation expectations have risen further, and the risks to inflation - including expectations themselves - remain tilted firmly to the upside.

Crucially, the Middle East shock, which was framed merely as an uncertainty last month, is now being treated as a clear near‑term inflationary impulse already feeding directly into the data. As the Board noted: ‘There are early signs that many firms experiencing cost pressures are looking to increase prices of their goods and services. Short‑term measures of inflation expectations have also risen.’

While acknowledging that financial conditions have tightened further this year, evidenced by higher money market rates, bond yields and a stronger exchange rate, the Board pointed out that credit remains readily available. Despite ongoing uncertainty in the backdrop, policymakers remain of the view that monetary settings need to stay restrictive to bring inflation back to target.

Markets weigh revised forecasts and future rate path

The RBA’s revised forecasts, published in the statement on monetary policy, landed largely in line with expectations. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been revised lower across the forecast horizon, reflecting the combined impact of higher oil prices and elevated interest rates. Forecasts for headline inflation have been lifted to 4.8% from 4.2% for June 2026, while trimmed mean inflation is now expected to reach 3.8% in June, up slightly from 3.7% in the February statement.

Looking ahead, markets will be closely watching incoming data to assess the odds of a fourth consecutive rate increase at the next Board meeting on Tuesday, 16 June. At present, the interest‑rate market is pricing in around 5 bp of tightening for the June meeting, with the next full 25 bp hike expected in September.

ASX 200 stocks

Consumer discretionary sector

Returning to price action on the ASX 200, the interest‑rate‑sensitive consumer discretionary sector has been the weakest performer today. Contributing to the decline:

• Temple & Webster fell 2.57% to $5.32
• Domino’s Pizza lost 2% to $15.74
• Super Retail Group declined 1.41% to $11.57.

Energy sector

Energy stood out as the clear outperformer. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil finishing higher overnight at $104.83 (+2.26%), marking a ninth gain in the past eleven sessions, local energy stocks came under strong buying interest.

• Karoon Energy advanced 3.13% to $2.14
• Viva Energy rose 2.69% to $2.48
• Woodside Energy gained 1.79% to $32.68.

Financials sector

The heavyweight financials sector also moved lower.

• Westpac fell 2% to $37.70 following the release of its half‑year earnings. While the bank reported a $3.4 billion net profit broadly in line with expectations, the result was met with a subdued response amid concerns around net interest margin compression and a more cautious outlook for lending growth in the second half
• NAB slipped 1.02% to $38.80
• ANZ Group lost 1.02% to $35.93
• Commonwealth Bank of Australia bucked the broader trend, edging 0.06% higher to $172.30.

Materials sector

The materials sector joined the broader weakness, weighed down by declines in gold and uranium prices overnight.

• Regis Resources dropped 6.97% to $6.67
• Ora Banda Mining fell 3.45% to $1.26
• Northern Star Resources eased 1.56% to $20.77

In the volatile uranium space,

• Boss Energy slid 4.59% to $1.35
• Bannerman Energy declined 1.84% to $4.00
• Deep Yellow lost 1.36% to $1.81.

ASX 200 technical analysis

From the 9021.5 high recorded on 14 April, the ASX 200 fell 389 points (‑4.3%) into last Thursday’s low of 8632.2.

Looking ahead, the index needs to reclaim the 200‑day moving average at 8803, on a closing basis, to regain firmer footing and position for a retest of the 9200 record high.

Until that occurs, downside risks remain elevated, with the next level of support viewed around 8600 - 8580.

ASX 200 daily candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 5 May 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}