Crypto market dazed: Bitcoin and Ethereum struggle to shake October blues

Bitcoin and Ethereum reverse gains after strong start to 2025

With markets now firmly in the home straight for the run into year-end, the crypto sector remains in a daze following its October meltdown.

After being one of the best-performing assets during the first nine months of 2025, with Bitcoin up over 35% at its October peak of $126,272, it is now down 5.25% year-to-date (YTD) at its current price of $88,480. Ethereum has suffered a similar fall from grace. At its current price of $3005, it is down 9.80% YTD, a stark contrast to being up almost 50% in August.

The overhang from this correction has left the outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum uncertain, a sentiment perhaps best illustrated by the conflicting views offered recently by two research strategists at the boutique United States (US) firm Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Analysts split on crypto outlook as uncertainty grows

Tom Lee, the well-known co-founder and head of research, remains publicly bullish. He predicts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 within months and calls Ether at roughly $3000 ‘grossly undervalued’. Notably, Lee is also the chairman of BitMine, a company aiming to become the world’s leading Ethereum treasury.

However, in a recent internal client note, Sean Farrell – Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy – caused a stir by outlining a more cautious short-term view. Farrell sees Bitcoin falling to $60,000 – $65,000 in the first half of 2026, citing risk management concerns and the potential for further drawdowns.

Tom Lee explained the disagreement by stating that the views reflected different mandates: his own long-term macro bullishness versus Farrell’s near-term tactical caution.

Our view is more in line with Farrell’s. This is based on our technical view outlined here two weeks ago (and refreshed below), reinforced by the soft price action overnight as Bitcoin recoiled from the $90,536 high it hit earlier in the session, despite a supportive backdrop of higher equities, rising gold prices, and a US dollar.

Bitcoin technical analysis

The 17.5% rally from the 21 November $8053 ‘capitulation low’ to the recent $94,652 high displays corrective qualities, which implies the rally is countertrend (Wave IV within the Elliott Wave framework).

This suggests that while Bitcoin remains below the $95,000 – $100,000 resistance zone, the risks are for the downtrend to resume and for a retest and break of the $8053 low (for Wave V), towards the Liberation Day lows at $75,000.

It is important to note that if Bitcoin first sees a sustained break above resistance at $95,000 – $100,000 and then above the 200-day moving average (MA) currently at $108,000, it will shift the landscape in favour of a retest of the $126,272 high.

Bitcoin daily chart

Ethereum technical analysis

The 33% rally from the 21 November $2620 ‘capitulation low’ to the recent $3477 high displays corrective qualities, which implies the rally is countertrend (Wave IV within the Elliott Wave framework).

This suggests that while Ethereum remains below the recent $3477 high reinforced by the 200-day MA currently at $3600, the risks are for the downtrend to resume and for a retest and break of the $2620 low (for Wave V), towards $2250.

It is important to note that if Ethereum first sees a sustained break above resistance at $3500 – $3600, it would shift the landscape initially towards a test of $4000, before a possible rally towards the $4750 – $4950 resistance zone.

Ethereum daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 23 December 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}