FX levels to watch – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

Attention is focused so far on the yen, but services PMI numbers from the UK will rapidly take over as the key event for the morning. 

Pound and dollar
Source: Bloomberg


A lower high yesterday seems to indicate that we expecting more downside, with an initial move toward $1.4180 possible (support on 1 and 4 April, and resistance on 24 March), and then on down towards $1.4050, the low from 24 March.

A bounce needs to move back above $1.4350 and then clear the high from last week at $1.4450.

So long as the price holds below the 50-day simple moving average ($1.4270) a bearish path seems the most likely course.


Bullish momentum faded over the past few days, with gains faltering above $1.14. Some support around $1.13 is possible, with a further drop towards the first weekly pivot at $1.1216 also likely.

Below this the next target becomes the 200-day SMA around $1.1040. Any rally needs to clear $1.14 in the first instance, before moving on to $1.1490. 


We may be seeing the beginning of a move back towards the rising trendline that dominated in January and February.

The move back below $0.76 suggests that sellers are in control again, with first support around $0.7540 and then down to the recent low at $0.75. Below here the rising daily trendline comes into play. 


Rumours of possible Bank of Japan intervention this morning have yet to be conclusively proven, but the break of the key ¥111 level signals that the yen bulls are back in charge.

If ¥110 breaks then ¥109.20, the inside trendline, is the next area to watch, with the third weekly pivot at ¥108.67 below this. 

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