Overall, the meeting had minimal impact, but the press conference was construed as ‘less dovish’ than what the market was hoping for. In testament to this, the euro actually managed to regain some ground against the greenback after a long period of underperformance.
EUR/USD traded as low as $1.2577 this week and has since bounced to a high of $1.2700. The short-term downtrend resistance comes in around the $1.2700 mark and the sellers seem to be circling now. Attention now shifts to the USD side of the equation where traders will be eyeing non-farm payrolls data.
Should US payrolls data print a number north of 200,000, we could see the USD rally resume and this would result in some EUR/USD selling. In such a situation I would be eyeing a retest of this week’s lows.