Investor optimism continues to build as the Australia 200 extends gains ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July meeting. Global focus shifts to the Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and key inflation data from China.
Written by
Market Analyst
United States (US) stock markets finished a holiday-shortened week on a high note, driven by stronger-than-expected jobs data, optimism about trade deals, and the House's approval of President Trump’s tax bill, which now moves to the president's desk for signature.
Locally, the Australia 200 (ASX 200) is on track to record its 10th week of gains over the past 12 weeks, supported by gains on Wall Street and expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate cut this coming week.
Date: Tuesday, 8 July at 12.30pm SGT
At its last meeting in May, the RBA cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bp), taking it to 3.85%. The rate cut was widely expected after the first quarter (Q1) 2025 inflation report showed both trimmed mean and headline inflation fell to within the bank's 2-3% inflation target range.
The RBA’s rate cut was accompanied by dovish commentary, highlighting that the RBA was 'cautious about the outlook.' At the same time, the RBA revised lower its inflation and growth forecasts and revised higher its forecast for the unemployment rate.
Since then, the case for further monetary policy easing has strengthened. This includes a soft May CPI report where the headline CPI indicator eased to 2.1% year-on-year (YoY) from 2.4% in April. The core measure of inflation, the annual trimmed mean, fell to 2.4% YoY in May from 2.8%, marking the lowest rate since November 2021.
Meanwhile, Q1 GDP data released in June showed the Australian economy grew at just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), for an annual rate of 1.3%. Both readings were weaker than expected, and the annual rate remains well below the 2.75-3.25% growth rate we had become accustomed to before the Covid-19 shock.
These factors, combined with ongoing concerns around tariffs and trade, have negated any concerns that the RBA may have had about a tight labour market.
As a result, we expect the RBA will cut the rate by 25 bp at its July, August, and December meetings, bringing the OCR back to 3.1% by year-end.
Date: Wednesday, 9 July at 9.30am SGT
For May, headline consumer prices fell by 0.1% YoY, matching the same rate of decline observed in March and April. It was the fourth consecutive month of consumer deflation, driven by the uncertainty created by tepid domestic demand, tariff concerns, and sharper falls in food prices. Specifically, pork prices fell 14.4% YoY due to oversupply and weaker demand.
The core measure of inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.6%, marking the highest reading since January, following a 0.5% increase in the prior two months.
For June, the expectation is for headline inflation to fall by 0.3%. There are hopes that the recent trade deal signed with the US will help mitigate trade concerns and boost domestic demand to end the deflationary spiral. Additionally, Chinese authorities earlier this week warned about overcapacity and ‘disorderly low-price competition’ across various industries, including chemicals and metals, potentially providing an additional boost back into positive territory in the months ahead.
Date: Wednesday, 9 July at 10.00am SGT
At its last meeting in May, the RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25 bp to 3.25% on a vote of 5 to 1 in favour of cutting versus holding. It was the RBNZ’s sixth straight cut, bringing total easing to 225 bp.
In recognition of the downside risks to growth from President Trump’s tariffs and with inflation back within the target band, the RBNZ lowered its OCR track by 25 bp from 3.1% to 2.85%. This indicates the RBNZ is anticipating the need for up to two more rate cuts, taking the cash rate to 2.75% by early next year.
The 5-1 vote and the removal of the explicit forward guidance stating ‘scope to lower the OCR further’ were interpreted by markets as signalling that the RBNZ was likely to pause its easing cycle in July. This view has since been supported by a better-than-expected Q1 2025 GDP report and a rise in business confidence.
However, with New Zealand’s unemployment rate at 5.1%, significantly above the 3.3% low recorded in September 2022, and considering ongoing trade uncertainties, sluggish activity, and a still-weak housing market, further RBNZ rate cuts are necessary to help foster the green shoots that are beginning to emerge.
We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady next week before a 25 bp rate cut in October and another in February, which would bring the terminal rate to 2.75%.
Date: Wednesday, 10 July at 2.00am SGT
At its last meeting in mid-June, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the Fed Funds target rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, as widely expected. The decision was unanimous, reflecting a cautious 'wait-and-see' approach due to economic uncertainties, particularly around trade tariffs and their potential inflationary impact.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised the need for more data before adjusting policy, noting solid labour market conditions and slightly elevated inflation. The Fed’s dot plot shows members still anticipating two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September.
This week’s stronger-than-expected NFP report, which showed the US economy added 147,000 jobs in June versus the 110,000 expected, along with a surprise decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2%, supports the idea the Fed can afford to remain in 'wait-and-see' mode until the September FOMC meeting.
The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be closely scrutinised for discussions around what might prompt an early Fed rate cut or what might see them push back rate cuts until the final months of this year.
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