Market Navigator: US payrolls, China CPI, SpaceX earnings – week of 3 Aug 2026

Last week's recap: Fed, BoE and BoJ on hold and China's factories slip into contraction

• Divided Fed offers no clarity: Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady, despite three policymakers dissenting for a hike. Warsh gave no sign of imminent tightening, unsettling investors over the Fed's ability to anchor inflation expectations. The 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
• Hawkish tilt at BoE, BoJ: The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy rate at 3.75%, with hawkish dissents rising to three from two. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held at 1%, though an upgraded gross domestic product (GDP) forecast and inflation-overshoot warnings read hawkish. Coordinated Japan–US intervention, the first since 2011, drove USD/JPY down 3.8% to 157.6, though history suggests effects usually fade without a structural change in monetary policy.
• Australian inflation eases: Consumer price index (CPI) growth eased to 3.8% year-on-year (YoY) in June from 4.0% in May, easing pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to tighten further. Bets on an August rate hike collapsed from 32% to just 4%.
• China activity falls into contraction: Official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, ending four months of expansion. Non-manufacturing PMI slid into lowest since December 2022, to 49.0 from 50.2, dragged by capital market services and construction. The broad-based weakness adds pressure on Beijing to bolster domestic demand.

Markets in focus: US mega-cap performance diverges, Hang Seng posts best week since September, Nikkei 225 hit by chip rout

Apple and Meta slide as Microsoft and Amazon cloud strength splits mega-cap performance

US equities swung sharply through the week before rallying into the close, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both up 1.0% and the Nasdaq 100 adding 0.5%. Memory chipmakers extended their sell-off, with Micron down 10.6% and SanDisk plunging 15.4% amid continued volatility in the AI memory trade.

Mega-cap earnings drove a sharp divergence. Apple fell 7.2% despite record quarterly revenue, after guiding to fourth-quarter revenue growth of just 9% – 11%, below the 12% consensus. A global memory shortage is set to constrain iPhone, Mac and iPad shipments, with gross margin also guided lower as memory costs bite. Meta shed 6.5% after an earnings per share (EPS) miss and a 91% collapse in free cash flow, as capital expenditure guidance was raised again to fund its AI build-out.

By contrast, cloud strength lifted Microsoft (+21.8%) and Amazon (+17.0%), as both companies posted accelerating cloud revenue growth – Azure up 43% and AWS up 37% – helping ease investor concerns that heavy AI capital spending is outpacing returns.

The US Tech 100's decisive breach below the 28,186 level represents further weakening in technical momentum. Although a sharp rebound was seen on Thursday, the near-term trend remains bearish until a sustained break above the downward channel established since 22 June. The index is likely to face resistance from the 20-day moving average (MA) near 28,740. It is critical for the US Tech 100 to hold above 26,800, near the 200-day MA, to maintain the medium-term uptrend.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index daily price chart

Hang Seng Index rallies as Beijing signals more support

Unlike its tech-heavy Asian peers, Hong Kong stocks had a far calmer week. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose for five consecutive sessions, concluding the week up 3.7% – its best weekly performance since September 2025.

On the macro side, the Politburo meeting held last Thursday laid out priorities for the second half of the year, pledging to boost domestic demand and continue the fight against 'involution' – excessive, price-destructive competition. Policymakers also called for faster fiscal spending and shifted their monetary policy language to "moderately loose", reviving market expectations for a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or interest rate cut later this year.

At the company level, Tencent and NetEase rebounded sharply after the previous week's sell-off on gaming revenue concerns. Xiaomi rose 7.7% after unveiling two new SUV models, the Sky Nomad N90 and N70. Laopu Gold fell 13.4%, the worst-performing HSI constituent, on softer gold prices, while SMIC dropped 11.4% amid the global semiconductor sell-off.

Elsewhere, AI optical-module maker Zhongji Innolight made its Hong Kong trading debut after raising HK$53.4 billion in the city's largest initial public offering (IPO) in seven years – though its shares fell on debut, a reminder of investor caution towards AI names that have already seen a strong run-up.

The technical picture for the HSI turned more positive after it successfully broke through the 25,200 level, which opens the way to challenge May's high near 26,845 if the index can sustain above the 200-day MA near 25,730. Support can be found at the 20-day MA near 24,800.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index daily price chart

Nikkei 225 dragged by a semiconductor rout as Kioxia slumps

A global semiconductor rout rippled through Japan, South Korea and Taiwan this week. The Nikkei 225 tumbled as much as 17% from its 22 June peak before recouping losses in the latter half of the week, ending 0.4% lower – still up 28% year-to-date on the AI rally.

Technology names bore the brunt of the selling. Memory chipmaker Kioxia plunged 17.0% for the week. Its first-quarter revenue surged 415.5% YoY to a record ¥1,767.1 billion, but guidance for the current quarter fell short of consensus – a sign the AI-driven memory price surge may be moderating. Semiconductor equipment maker Tokyo Electron reported record quarterly sales of ¥732.3 billion, up 33.3% YoY, and management raised its first-half guidance. The results drove a sharp rebound in the shares, though the stock still ended the week down 11.4% given the sell-off earlier in the week.

Sony bucked the trend, rising 11.1% after operating profit jumped 40% YoY, beating consensus, on gaming and imaging strength. Management reassured investors it has secured sufficient memory supply to meet this year's sales volumes.

The weak yen has supported Japanese equities this year. While Thursday's FX intervention did little to derail the equity market's recovery, the US Treasury's action on Friday joining Japan in buying yen adds a fresh source of uncertainty. Nikkei futures point lower into the new week, as investors weigh whether a change in the dollar-yen trend could dent the export-driven rally.

The Japan 225 index rebounded above the psychological level of 60,000 before reaching critical support near 59,280 from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical momentum weakened after a death cross was formed on 22 July. The index faces a near-term downward bias unless it can sustainably break above resistance from its 50-day MA near 67,500.

Figure 3: Japan 225 daily price chart

The week ahead: US payrolls, China inflation and SpaceX's first earnings in focus

The week ahead hinges on the US labour market, ISM surveys and China's inflation data, alongside a packed earnings calendar led by SpaceX's public-market debut.

June's non-farm payrolls largely undershot expectations, with just 57,000 jobs added versus a 114,000 consensus, though unemployment ticked down to 4.2% as fewer people searched for work. Recent jobless claims have offered a firmer signal: both initial and continuing claims have trended lower through July, easing fears of a sharper slowdown. Tuesday's Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and Friday's non-farm payrolls report will confirm whether the US job market stays resilient in a 'low hire, low fire' environment.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings will show whether solid expansion in both sectors – running at 53.3 and 54.0 in June – is holding up. Price data from the survey will also provide indications of any re-heating in inflation from an escalation in the Middle East.

Inflation data will take centre stage in China. June's producer price index (PPI) accelerated to 4.1% year-on-year (YoY), a near four-year high driven by elevated raw material costs, while CPI growth softened to 1.0%. The widening gap between the two measures points to weak consumption demand and margin pressure on businesses unable to pass rising costs onto consumers. 

On the corporate front, SpaceX reports its first results as a public company on Tuesday; roughly 911 million insider shares – exceeding the current public free float – unlock two days later, a set-up that could add volatility to an already jittery stock. Palantir's results will be watched for a further guidance raise, having already lifted its full-year outlook to 71% growth. GLP-1 drug makers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly also report, on Wednesday.

Figure 4: US non-farm payroll and unemployment rate

Key macro events this week: US job report, PMI and China inflation data

(All times in GMT+8)

Monday 3 August 2026

• 9.45am — China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (July): previous 51.7, consensus 51.5
• 10.00pm — US ISM manufacturing PMI (July): previous 53.3, consensus 54

Tuesday 4 August 2026

• 8.30pm — US trade balance (June): previous -$77.6 billion, consensus -$73.0 billion
• 10.00pm — US JOLTs job openings (June): previous 7.594 million, consensus 7.25 million

Wednesday 5 August 2026

• 7.50am — Japan BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes
• 9.45am — China RatingDog services PMI (July): previous 54.1, consensus 53.7
• 10.00pm — US ISM services PMI (July): previous 54.0, consensus 54.2

Thursday 6 August 2026

• 9.30am — Australia trade balance (June): previous -A$3.018 billion, consensus -A$1.08 billion

Friday 7 August 2026

• 11.00am — China trade balance (July): previous $125.62 billion, consensus $112.5 billion
• 11.00am — China exports YoY (July): previous 27%
• 11.00am — China imports YoY (July): previous 36%
• 8.30pm — US non-farm payrolls (July): previous 57,000, consensus 91,000
• 8.30pm — US unemployment rate (July): previous 4.2%, consensus 4.3%

Sunday 9 August 2026

• 9.30am — China inflation rate YoY (July): previous 1%, estimate 0.9%
• 9.30am — China PPI YoY (July): previous 4.1%, estimate 4.3%

Key corporate earnings: SpaceX, Palantir, Softbank report alongside biotech giants Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk and more

(In local exchange time)

Monday 3 August 2026

• WuXi AppTec
• Palantir
• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group

Tuesday 4 August 2026

• Toyota Motor
• HSBC
• SpaceX
• Advanced Micro Devices
• Caterpillar
• Merck & Co
• Amgen
• McDonald's

Wednesday 5 August 2026

• Eli Lilly 
• Novo Nordisk
• Walt Disney
• SanDisk

Thursday 6 August 2026

• Softbank Group
• Nintendo

Saturday 8 August 2026

• Berkshire Hathaway

_{Source: Trading Economics, Nasdaq, LSEG (as of 2 August 2026)}