Gold – will the breakout succeed?

Since the gold rally at the beginning of the year, the precious metal has not managed to date to break sustainably above the long-term downward trend (here: red line). 


The rise up to 1,295 USD per troy ounce in April and June was followed each time by even lower lows. And first the support at 1,200 USD per troy ounce and a clearly weakening US dollar could prevent a further price drop. Meanwhile, the gold price moved back to 1,265 USD per troy ounce and is struggling again to break the mentioned downward trend that can be currently found just below 1,270 USD per troy ounce. If this was going to happen, gold would be then promptly targeting the June high of 1,295 USD. This will determine whether we can expect a sustainable upward movement. First if this level is broken it will open up potential to move towards the target zone of 1,370 – 1,390 USD per troy ounce. However, it should be noted that the current recovery is supported primarily by the dollar weakness. Should we see any signs of stabilizing or even a recovery in the US dollar, falls in gold prices have to be expected. The US Dollar Index is currently trading just above 92,50 points which is a crucial support level that was defended last week. Should this level not be broken down sustainably, the major target for the gold price would be 1,230 USD (current 200-day SMA). The support zone at 1,200 – 1,210 USD per troy ounce remains below that level as a key hurdle to overcome to the downside.


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