EUR/AUD rallies following Aus CPI

After yesterday’s lower-than-forecast Australian Q1 CPI print we saw EUR/AUD rally to a high of 1.4926. 

I looked at buying the pair on a break of the downtrend (on the hourly chart), which at the time was at 1.4810, however the trend gave way on April 15 at 1.4754 and this was my trigger for long positions. It was also positive to see that the pair found good support on a re-test of the former downtrend (as you can see on the hourly chart enclosed).

Part of the reason we saw the strength in the pair was that we saw solid Eurozone ‘flash’ composite PMIs, which at 54.0 was a 35-month high. This clearly suggests the recovery in the Eurozone is on track and in theory holds upside risks to the consensus Q1 GDP on June 4 of 1%. Employment showed signs of improvement, which is certainly positive. 

Today at 18:00 we get the German IFO report and the market is expecting a modest decline in this survey, with expectations for the sub-index to fall from 106.4 to 105.8. A good number in this data point should lower expectations of ECB action in its coming central bank meeting.

I continue to feel there are upside risks to this pair and would potentially have a stop at 1.4775.

IG Charts

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