CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

Silver outperforms against gold again, oil finishes higher

CoT bias remains majority long for all three, rises in silver while drops in gold.

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

After a reversal on Thursday aiding contrarian strategies, conformist buy breakout strategies eventually outperformed at the end of the week as gold prices managed to claw back most of the territory lost in the first three days of last week. The US dollar has been an underperformer in the FX market and tensions haven't subsided on the geopolitical front, and even with lockdown restrictions easing expectations are for monetary easing to continue to play a central role in attempting to jumpstart the economy. While retail sentiment is unchanged week-on-week, it did rise to extreme long levels earlier in the week when prices dropped only for fresh longs to close out and take profit.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold

The latest figures out of the CFTC's CoT (Commitment of Traders) report shows larger speculators still holding an extreme long bias but dropping a couple notches on a reduction in longs by 7,246 lots and shorts rising by 6,628 lots.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Conformist breakout strategies outperformed as silver prices surged at the end of last week to register a strong Friday and weekly finish. Silver outperformed against gold for a fourth consecutive week, and as such the gold/silver ratio has plummeted back below 100 but still above the 88 ratio where prices were oscillating at prior to the February and March jump to record highs. Should the ratio continue its descent, and that means silver prices will outperform whether both precious metals rise or fall in price. The technical overview is more bullish on the daily and weekly here compared to gold given the latest moves, but we've been here countless times before.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver

Retail sentiment is little changed and remains in extreme long territory, while CoT speculators have increased their long bias to a heavier 72% on an increase in longs by 7,134 lots outdoing a small increase in shorts by only 873 lots.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Volatility conformist breakout strategies outperformed last week for oil with a move breaching both its 1st and 2nd Resistance levels. EIA's (Energy Information Administration) surplus of 7.9m failed to dent the rally, with US measures against China avoiding encompassing their phase 1 trade deal and in turn doing little to dent energy demand as lockdown restrictions continue to ease. Furthermore, Baker Hughes US oil rig count showed another consecutive drop falling to 222 from 237 the week before. It's expected to get volatile on the oil front with OPEC+ meeting next week, and Algeria has proposed moving it to this Thursday instead which would test pivot points early on should that be the case.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

It was a positive week for retail longs with majority buy bias dropping to 56% since the start of last week, and dropping from 65% from Thursday morning following the intraweek plummet.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

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This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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