The Week Ahead

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Week commencing 19 October

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Joshua Mahony’s insight

With market volatility elevated in response to US election, fiscal stimulus efforts, and a wave of European lockdowns, the forthcoming week looks likely to be a busy one for traders. From an economic perspective, the Chinese Q3 growth reading provides an insight into on outperformer as the source of the virus looks set to maintain its impressive recovery.

UK regional restrictions and Brexit fears have hurt the pound, and traders will be watching out for further volatility as inflation, retail sales, and PMI releases shed further light on the recovery. From a corporate perspective, we see a the return of tech as Q3 earnings season moves into full flow. Given the tightening in restrictions throughout numerous Western nations, this week could provide a timely reminder of the benefits of holding stocks which benefit from this shift in shopping and social habits. Particular attention is likely to be reserved for the likes of Netflix, Tesla, IBM, Proctor & Gamble, and Snap. Meanwhile, the European focus will be on names such as Barclays, Unilever, and Bellway.

Economic reports

  • Monday
  • Tuesday
  • Wednesday
  • Thursday
  • Friday
  • Weekly view

12.50am – Japan trade balance (September): exports fell 14.8% in August. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

3am – China GDP (Q3): forecast to be 3.3% YoY and 0.6% QoQ. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (September): permits to fall 6.4% MoM and starts to drop 4.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

7am – UK CPI (September): prices to rise 0.2% YoY and 0.1% MoM, and core CPI to rise 0.8% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (September): prices expected to rise 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 16 October): Last week saw significant rise to a one-month low of -3.8 million barrels. Markets to watch: Crude

7am – German consumer confidence (November): expected to fall to -3 from -1.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 17 October): expected to continue the recent gradual rise, with a move to 915K, from 898K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (September): sales expected to fall 7.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (October, flash): sentiment index to fall to -14.6 from -13.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

12.30am – Japan CPI (September): prices to rise 0.1% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (September): expected to fall 1.3% MoM and rise 1.4% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (October, flash): the key number to watch here will be the German mfg PMI, which is expected to fall to 55.1 from 56.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK mfg & services PMI (October, flash): mfg to fall to 52.9 and services to fall to 51.5 from 56.1. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (October, flash): services PMI to fall to 53.8 and mfg to fall to 52.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Monday

12.50am – Japan trade balance (September): exports fell 14.8% in August. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

3am – China GDP (Q3): forecast to be 3.3% YoY and 0.6% QoQ. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

Tuesday

1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (September): permits to fall 6.4% MoM and starts to drop 4.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

Wednesday

7am – UK CPI (September): prices to rise 0.2% YoY and 0.1% MoM, and core CPI to rise 0.8% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (September): prices expected to rise 0.3% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 16 October): Last week saw significant rise to a one-month low of -3.8 million barrels. Markets to watch: Crude

Thursday

7am – German consumer confidence (November): expected to fall to -3 from -1.6. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 17 October): expected to continue the recent gradual rise, with a move to 915K, from 898K. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (September): sales expected to fall 7.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (October, flash): sentiment index to fall to -14.6 from -13.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

Friday

12.30am – Japan CPI (September): prices to rise 0.1% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (September): expected to fall 1.3% MoM and rise 1.4% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (October, flash): the key number to watch here will be the German mfg PMI, which is expected to fall to 55.1 from 56.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

9.30am – UK mfg & services PMI (October, flash): mfg to fall to 52.9 and services to fall to 51.5 from 56.1. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (October, flash): services PMI to fall to 53.8 and mfg to fall to 52.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Dividends

Upcoming

FTSE 100: BAE Systems, Smiths Group (interim & final)

FTSE 250: Tritax Big Box

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

Index adjustments

Monday 19 October Tuesday 20 October Wednesday 21 October Thursday 22 October Friday 23 October Monday 26 October
FTSE 100

1.73
Australia 200
Wall Street 5.2 6.8
US 500 0.07 0.08 0.29 0.07 0.03 0.05
Nasdaq 0.14
Netherlands 25 0.08
EU Stocks 50
China H-Shares
Singapore Blue Chip 0.08
Hong Kong HS50
South Africa 40
Japan 225

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Fast execution on a huge range of markets

Enjoy flexible access to more than 17,000 global markets, with reliable execution

Deal seamlessly, wherever you are

Trade on the move with our natively designed, award-winning trading app

Feel secure with a trusted provider

With 45 years of experience, we’re proud to offer a truly market-leading service