The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 2 March
Chris Beauchamp insight
US job numbers dominate the week, culminating in the Friday payrolls report, but the monthly US ISM numbers are also published, along with Chinese PMIs. This marks the return to pre-eminence of economic data, after weeks of earnings. It is another busy week for UK company data, including Fresnillo, last year's star performer, Reckitt Benckiser, the consumer staples giant, and insurer Admiral. The main US company reporting this week is Broadcom, which has seen its shares struggle since September.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
1.45am (London time) – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (February): index expected to rise to 50.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM manufacturing PMI (February): index forecast to fall to 51.3 from 52.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
10am (London time) – Eurozone inflation (February, flash): prices expected to rise 1.7% YoY, in line with January, and 0.4% MoM, from a 0.6% drop in January. Core CPI expected to hold at 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30am (London time) – China NBS PMI (February): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49.9 from 49.7, while non-manufacturing rises to 50 from 49.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.45am (London time) – China Caixin services PMI (February): expected to fall to 51.7 from 52.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
5am (London time) – Japan consumer confidence (February): index expected to rise to 38.1 from 37.9. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.15pm (London time) – US ADP employment report (February): 19,000 jobs expected, down from 22,000. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM services PMI (February): index forecast to fall to 53, from 53.8, indicating slowing activity. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 February): stockpiles rose by 15.9 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
9.30am (London time) – UK construction PMI (February): expected to rise to 47 from 46.4. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 February). Markets to watch: USD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US non-farm payrolls (February), retail sales (January): payrolls expected to be 70K, down from 130K a month earlier. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%, average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.6% YoY, down from 0.4% and 3.7% respectively. Meanwhile, retail sales expected to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – Canada Ivey PMI (February): previous reading 50.9. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Monday
1.45am (London time) – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (February): index expected to rise to 50.5 from 50.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM manufacturing PMI (February): index forecast to fall to 51.3 from 52.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
10am (London time) – Eurozone inflation (February, flash): prices expected to rise 1.7% YoY, in line with January, and 0.4% MoM, from a 0.6% drop in January. Core CPI expected to hold at 2.2% YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Wednesday
1.30am (London time) – China NBS PMI (February): manufacturing PMI expected to rise to 49.9 from 49.7, while non-manufacturing rises to 50 from 49.4. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.45am (London time) – China Caixin services PMI (February): expected to fall to 51.7 from 52.3. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
5am (London time) – Japan consumer confidence (February): index expected to rise to 38.1 from 37.9. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
1.15pm (London time) – US ADP employment report (February): 19,000 jobs expected, down from 22,000. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM services PMI (February): index forecast to fall to 53, from 53.8, indicating slowing activity. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 February): stockpiles rose by 15.9 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
9.30am (London time) – UK construction PMI (February): expected to rise to 47 from 46.4. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 February). Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
1.30pm (London time) – US non-farm payrolls (February), retail sales (January): payrolls expected to be 70K, down from 130K a month earlier. Unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%, average hourly earnings forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 3.6% YoY, down from 0.4% and 3.7% respectively. Meanwhile, retail sales expected to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – Canada Ivey PMI (February): previous reading 50.9. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE 100: Rio Tinto PLC
FTSE 250: Dr. Martens Plc, Renishaw PLC, Energean Oil & Gas PLC, Genus PLC
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
* Please note these can change without notice
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