The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 30 March
Chris Beauchamp insight
This week has data that provides an insight into how the war in the Middle East has hit the global economy. This comes in the form of inflation figures for Germany and the eurozone, plus the ISM PMIs for the US. Price growth is expected to have accelerated, while US economic activity is forecast to have slowed. Payrolls are also published, and after February's shock fall markets will watch for signs of a recovery. However the US unemployment rate is still expected to rise.
This busy slate of economic data makes up for an empty corporate calendar though US earnings season for Q1 will be upon us soon enough.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
1pm (London time) – German inflation (March, preliminary): prices forecast to rise 2.3% YoY and 0.7% MoM, from 1.9% and 0.2% respectively. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.30am (London time) – China PMIs (March): manufacturing activity forecast to rise to 49.8 from 49, and non-manufacturing to move back into expansion territory, at 50.5, from 49.5. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
7.45am (London time) – France inflation (March, preliminary): YoY rate expected to rise to 1.3% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
8.55am (London time) – German unemployment (March): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am (London time) – eurozone inflation (March, flash): prices expected to rise 2.2% YoY and 0.9% MoM, from 1.9% and 0.6% in February. Core inflation to be 2.3% from 2.4%. YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US Chicago PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 57.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US consumer confidence (March): expected to drop to 86 from 91.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45am (London time) – China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (March): expected to fall to 51.7 from 52.1. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.15pm (London time) – US ADP employment report (March): 80,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from 63,000 a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US retail sales (February): sales expected to have fallen 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM manufacturing PMI (March): forecast to fall to 52 from 52.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 March): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 6.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 March): forecast to be 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45am (London time) – China RatingDog services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54.5 from 56.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US non-farm payrolls (March): 50,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from last month's 92,000 loss. Unemployment rate forecast to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 56.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Monday
1pm (London time) – German inflation (March, preliminary): prices forecast to rise 2.3% YoY and 0.7% MoM, from 1.9% and 0.2% respectively. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday
2.30am (London time) – China PMIs (March): manufacturing activity forecast to rise to 49.8 from 49, and non-manufacturing to move back into expansion territory, at 50.5, from 49.5. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
7.45am (London time) – France inflation (March, preliminary): YoY rate expected to rise to 1.3% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
8.55am (London time) – German unemployment (March): unemployment rate expected to hold at 6.3%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
10am (London time) – eurozone inflation (March, flash): prices expected to rise 2.2% YoY and 0.9% MoM, from 1.9% and 0.6% in February. Core inflation to be 2.3% from 2.4%. YoY. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US Chicago PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 57.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US consumer confidence (March): expected to drop to 86 from 91.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Wednesday
2.45am (London time) – China RatingDog manufacturing PMI (March): expected to fall to 51.7 from 52.1. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.15pm (London time) – US ADP employment report (March): 80,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from 63,000 a month earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US retail sales (February): sales expected to have fallen 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM manufacturing PMI (March): forecast to fall to 52 from 52.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 27 March): previous week saw stockpiles rise by 6.9 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Thursday
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 28 March): forecast to be 213K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Friday
2.45am (London time) – China RatingDog services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54.5 from 56.7. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US non-farm payrolls (March): 50,000 jobs expected to have been created, up from last month's 92,000 loss. Unemployment rate forecast to rise to 4.5% from 4.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US ISM services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 54 from 56.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Company announcements
| Monday 30 Mar |
Tuesday 31 Mar |
Wednesday 1 Apr |
Thursday 2 Apr |
Friday 3 Apr |
|
| Full-year earnings | AG Barr Raspberry Pi |
||||
| Half/ Quarterly earnings | NIKE Inc (24 Hours) | ||||
| Trading update |
Dividends
FTSE 100: Barratt Developments PLC, IMI PLC, Smiths Group PLC
FTSE 250: RIT Capital Partners PLC, Taylor Wimpey PLC, OneSavings Bank PLC, Domino's Pizza Group PLC, Chesnara PLC, Pollen Street
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index adjustments
| Monday 30-Mar |
Tuesday 31-Mar |
Wednesday 1-Apr |
Thursday 2-Apr |
Friday 3-Apr |
Monday 6-Apr |
|
| FTSE 100 | 0.71 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 0.4 | ||||
| Wall Street | 8.4 | 9.2 | ||||
| US 500 | 0.60 | 0.28 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.06 | |
| Nasdaq | 0.99 | 1.59 | 2.25 | 0.13 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | ||||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 2.6 | 4.9 | ||||
| China H-Shares | 3.9 | |||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.12 | |||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 0.1 | |||||
| South Africa 40 | 201 | |||||
| Japan 225 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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