The Week Ahead
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Week commencing 18 August
Chris Beauchamp insight
A week of mostly second-tier data, which includes a plethora of manufacturing and services PMIs, European and UK CPI, retail sales and consumer confidence. The week culminates in the Jackson Hole Symposium at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be expected to guide investors on the central bank’s policy path. UK earnings season will wind down with Aegon, BHP and Hays reporting.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
None
9.30pm (London time) – US API crude oil stocks change (w/e 15 August): previous reading at 1.5M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7am (London time) – UK inflation rate (July): CPI expected to rise to 4% from 3.6% YoY and to slow to 0.2% versus 0.3% MoM in June. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am (London time) – German PPI inflation rate (July): PPI forecast to slide by -1.4% from -1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 15 August): stockpiles rose by 3.037 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm (London time) – FOMC Minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1am (London time) – Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
8.30am (London time) – German HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 49.8 versus previous 49.1 and services to slide to 50.3 versus previous 50.6. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9am (London time) – Euro Area HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing forecast to rise to 50 versus 49.8 previously and services to rise to 51.5 versus July's 51. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9.30am (London time) – UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.6 versus previous 48 and services to slide to 51.7 versus July's 51.8. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 16 August): claims rose by 224K in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to slow to 49.7 versus previous 49.8 and services to slide to 53 versus July's 55.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US existing home sales (July): forecast to fall to 3.9m from 3.93m, to fall by 0.2% versus previous -2.7% MoM drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – Euro Area consumer confidence (August, Preliminary): forecast to improve to -14.4 versus -14.7 previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
12.01am (London time) – UK GfK consumer confidence (August): forecast to remain unchanged at -19. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am (London time) – UK retail sales (July): expected to rise by 0.3% versus 0.9% MoM and by 1.8% versus 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Monday
None
Tuesday
9.30pm (London time) – US API crude oil stocks change (w/e 15 August): previous reading at 1.5M. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Wednesday
7am (London time) – UK inflation rate (July): CPI expected to rise to 4% from 3.6% YoY and to slow to 0.2% versus 0.3% MoM in June. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am (London time) – German PPI inflation rate (July): PPI forecast to slide by -1.4% from -1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
3.30pm (London time) – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 15 August): stockpiles rose by 3.037 million barrels last week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm (London time) – FOMC Minutes. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
1am (London time) – Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
8.30am (London time) – German HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 49.8 versus previous 49.1 and services to slide to 50.3 versus previous 50.6. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9am (London time) – Euro Area HCOB manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing forecast to rise to 50 versus 49.8 previously and services to rise to 51.5 versus July's 51. Markets to watch: EU indices, EUR crosses
9.30am (London time) – UK S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to rise to 48.6 versus previous 48 and services to slide to 51.7 versus July's 51.8. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
1.30pm (London time) – US initial jobless claims (w/e 16 August): claims rose by 224K in the previous week. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45pm (London time) – US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (August, Preliminary): manufacturing expected to slow to 49.7 versus previous 49.8 and services to slide to 53 versus July's 55.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – US existing home sales (July): forecast to fall to 3.9m from 3.93m, to fall by 0.2% versus previous -2.7% MoM drop. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm (London time) – Euro Area consumer confidence (August, Preliminary): forecast to improve to -14.4 versus -14.7 previously. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
Friday
12.01am (London time) – UK GfK consumer confidence (August): forecast to remain unchanged at -19. Markets to watch: UK indices, GBP crosses
7am (London time) – UK retail sales (July): expected to rise by 0.3% versus 0.9% MoM and by 1.8% versus 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
Company announcements
Dividends
FTSE 100: Imperial Brands, Babcock International, Convatec, Schroders, Mondi, Anglo American, Legal & General, InterContinental Hotels, Entain
FTSE 250: XPS Pensions, Shaftesbury Capital, Ibstock, Plus500
Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
Index adjustments
| Monday 18-Aug |
Tuesday 19-Aug |
Wednesday 20-Aug |
Thursday 21-Aug |
Friday 22-Aug |
Monday 25-Aug |
|
| FTSE 100 | 4.61 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 2.4 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Wall Street | 10.5 | 5.1 | 14.6 | 4.5 | 8 | |
| US 500 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 0.82 | 0.28 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Nasdaq | 0.35 | 4.04 | 2.02 | 0.11 | ||
| Netherlands 25 | 0.21 | |||||
| EU Stocks 50 | 0.3 | |||||
| China H-Shares | ||||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.08 | 0.06 | ||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 2.4 | 1.7 | ||||
| South Africa 40 | 94.2 | |||||
| Japan 225 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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