Silver outperforms again, oil plummets following API surplus
Retail long bias edges higher in gold and oil, down a notch in silver.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Despite finishing yesterday's session slightly in the red, conformist buy-on-reversal was the outperforming strategy as gold's bullish technical overview continues to stall at these levels, with its price below all its main short-term moving averages but above all its main long-term ones. A risk-on environment in equities certainly doesn't aid the precious metal, but a positive factor has been rising uncertainty on the US-China front especially with measures expected to be announced soon. If those measures are relatively light, it could hurt safe haven further, while if harsher than expected and gold prices will have to contend with a potentially stronger greenback in the very short-term as the yuan weakens in the FX market.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias has risen again and is now in extreme long territory at 78%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Despite gold prices dropping, silver outperformed once again with a higher finish that closed above its 200-day moving average. Here too, conformist buy-on-reversal off of yesterday's 1st Support level was the outperforming strategy as the precious metal's price recovered off of the lows to cross and close above the last of its main short-term moving averages. The Gold/silver ratio dropped lower again for third straight session, as the technicals start to diverge between the two in favor of the latter.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was a busy day for oil prices, which broke below yesterday's 1st Support level to (at last) aid conformist breakout strategies that had been tested earlier in the week on a lack of intraday volatility. In oil news, the Kremlin said yesterday that both Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed on further 'close coordination' on oil output restrictions ahead of OPEC+ meetings next month, while in oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) sizeable surplus of 8.7m made last week's 4.8m deficit insignificant in comparison. EIA's (Energy Information Administration) more encompassing estimate is up next expected to show a slight deficit, and we'll also get significant US data including preliminary GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and durables. There’s also US-China tensions to factor into account for the energy commodity.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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