Oil crashes to lows unseen since 1999
CoT speculator bias remains heavy to extreme long for gold, silver, and oil.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
While conformist breakout strategies on the weekly might have enjoyed some gains as its price moved well past last week's Weekly 1st Resistance level, the eventual retracement back down gave contrarian reversals an edge, and tested buy positions given its short-term daily overview is a stalling bull trend, with its price on Friday breaking below its daily 1st Support level. Its bull trend channel on the daily and (roughly) on the weekly continue to hold, but any gains have continued to test majority long traders.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
The latest in sentiment shows heavy long bias amongst retail traders dropping slightly but continuing to anticipate further price gains (and where the majority of those longs have – at last – been initiated below current market price). As for the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, larger speculative traders increased both long and short positioning to the tune of 6,737 and 3,178 lots respectively.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Neither of last week's key pivot points in silver were reached, with its daily overview of a bull trend technical overview continuing to stall and needing little to shift. And while its price may have reached the daily 1st Support level, the move failed to aid on a reversal for more cautious traders thanks to what has been a relative drop in volatility. Technicals that are looking more neutral could aid contrarian reversals given its current volatile overview is on the verge of shifting, with a positive DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurring on the weekly.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail bias is still extreme long but dropped to 88%, while the latest CoT report shows larger speculators raising long positions by 1,532 lots and shorts by 695 lots, and as a percentage keeping the bias in heavy long territory at 73%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It was another tough week for oil traders (as well as anyone correlated with the energy commodity), with its price plummeting to aid conformist breakout strategies for the weekly overview, and yet the start of this week looks even tougher, with spot WTI crashing briefly into the $14s, lows unseen since 1999. Oil data disappointed, Baker Hughes US oil rig count dropping to 438 from 504 the week before, and IEA forecasting a 29m bpd drop for demand in April to levels unseen in well over two decades.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Retail bias in oil has risen to an extreme long 86%, higher than that of CoT traders who are unchanged at an extreme long 79%, with long positions rising by 44,703 lots and outdoing a smaller but still significant rise in short positions by 18,929 lots.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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