CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure. CFDs are a leveraged product and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Please ensure you fully understand how CFDs work and what their risks are, and take care to manage your exposure.

Oil crashes to lows unseen since 1999

CoT speculator bias remains heavy to extreme long for gold, silver, and oil.

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

While conformist breakout strategies on the weekly might have enjoyed some gains as its price moved well past last week's Weekly 1st Resistance level, the eventual retracement back down gave contrarian reversals an edge, and tested buy positions given its short-term daily overview is a stalling bull trend, with its price on Friday breaking below its daily 1st Support level. Its bull trend channel on the daily and (roughly) on the weekly continue to hold, but any gains have continued to test majority long traders.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold

The latest in sentiment shows heavy long bias amongst retail traders dropping slightly but continuing to anticipate further price gains (and where the majority of those longs have – at last – been initiated below current market price). As for the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report, larger speculative traders increased both long and short positioning to the tune of 6,737 and 3,178 lots respectively.

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

Neither of last week's key pivot points in silver were reached, with its daily overview of a bull trend technical overview continuing to stall and needing little to shift. And while its price may have reached the daily 1st Support level, the move failed to aid on a reversal for more cautious traders thanks to what has been a relative drop in volatility. Technicals that are looking more neutral could aid contrarian reversals given its current volatile overview is on the verge of shifting, with a positive DMI (Directional Movement Index) cross occurring on the weekly.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver

In sentiment, retail bias is still extreme long but dropped to 88%, while the latest CoT report shows larger speculators raising long positions by 1,532 lots and shorts by 695 lots, and as a percentage keeping the bias in heavy long territory at 73%.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels

It was another tough week for oil traders (as well as anyone correlated with the energy commodity), with its price plummeting to aid conformist breakout strategies for the weekly overview, and yet the start of this week looks even tougher, with spot WTI crashing briefly into the $14s, lows unseen since 1999. Oil data disappointed, Baker Hughes US oil rig count dropping to 438 from 504 the week before, and IEA forecasting a 29m bpd drop for demand in April to levels unseen in well over two decades.

Learn more about oil trading.

IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI

Retail bias in oil has risen to an extreme long 86%, higher than that of CoT traders who are unchanged at an extreme long 79%, with long positions rising by 44,703 lots and outdoing a smaller but still significant rise in short positions by 18,929 lots.

Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment

*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.

Be sure to request IG’s Weekly & Daily Market Report when you open an account with IG Dubai and get access to the full information on the FX majors, commodities, indices, and Bitcoin.


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
CFDs are a leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed your initial deposit, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

See an opportunity to trade?

Go long or short on more than 17,000 markets with IG.

Trade CFDs on our award-winning platform, with low spreads on indices, shares, commodities and more.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired
liveprices.javascriptrequired

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Friday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.

For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.