Oil’s overview volatile ahead of OPEC+ technical meeting
Gold’s technical overview also volatile thanks to fundamental shifts.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Last Monday's plummet alone was enough to aid conformist breakout strategies on the Weekly in line with its volatile overview, but throughout the rest of the week it's been a case of trying to claw back lost territory, its price failing to aid conformist breakouts on the Daily on Thursday as its price partially retraced to aid contrarian reversals, eventually finishing above the 1st Resistance level on Friday. US yields rising took the attention on expectations of eventual growth thanks to Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine news, and any further progress on that front be it from the duo, Moderna, or elsewhere could offset short to mid-term worries over surging coronavirus cases in the US and the economic damage it is causing.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Gold
Retail bias starts this week in extreme buy territory compared to the start of last week's 77% majority long sentiment, due to last Monday's plummet. Silver also starts the week higher at long 90% compared to last Monday's 87%. (CoT figures are delayed and will be released tonight, and hence institutional sentiment will be updated in tomorrow’s Daily Market Report).
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
When viewed from a Weekly standpoint, conformist breakout strategies outperformed as its price breached its 1st and 2nd Resistance levels towards the middle of last week, even if those gains were partially undone. On the Daily the momentum has dropped, testing short-term breakout strategies and aiding contrarian reversals for smaller pullbacks. Coronavirus cases surging in the mid-term and prompting new restrictions has brushed up against positive vaccine news at the start of last week. In oil data, Baker Hughes oil rig count for the US enjoyed another consecutive increase, rising from 226 to 236. We've got an OPEC+ technical meeting tomorrow, though according to a Reuters article from sources that countries this time around are '101%' compliant, and in turn would aid the mood especially as members see light at the end of the tunnel.
IG client* and CoT** sentiment for Oil WTI
Retail bias shifted to majority short during the middle of last week, but starts the week off back in long bias following the retracement in its price enticing fresh shorts into closing out. (CoT figures are delayed and will be released tonight, and hence institutional sentiment will be updated in tomorrow’s Daily Market Report).
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am for the outer circle. Inner circle is from the previous trading day.
**CoT sentiment taken from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report, outer circle is latest report released on Friday with the positions as of last Tuesday, inner circle from the report prior.
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