Oil rises again, gold oscillates, silver dips
API’s crude inventories estimate the first oil item this week, but financial market focus is on lockdown restrictions easing.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
US-China trade tensions may have kept equities gapping lower and aiding gold, which has a tendency to shine in geopolitical turmoil. However, with equities recovering and filling those gaps, they've stalled somewhat this morning. More economic data will be released this week and of crucial importance to global economic sectors, the result of which thus far has confirmed serious contraction which in turn will mean the economy and financial system will be more reliant on monetary and fiscal easing. On the opposing side, more news of lockdown restrictions easing may put equities and financial markets in a risk-on mood, and giving financial liquidity preference to potentially yielding assets over non-yielding gold.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
While gold may have finished slightly higher yesterday, silver prices oscillated to the downside for a third consecutive trading session, and in turn taking the gold/silver ratio back up briefly into the 115s. The US dollar was roughly in the middle in terms of FX market performance against the FX majors. From a technical standpoint, with its price below all its main moving averages and combined with a trending ADX (Average Directional Index), the bias is turning more negative. Gold and silver rarely hold differing technical overviews for long, and hence it’s only a matter of time before one is expected to eventually give in.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices started off the week a bit lower, only to recover and already make a move past yesterday's Weekly 1st Resistance level to aid conformist breakout strategies. Oil prices are still moving within a range well below that of where producers are able to hedge, and with lockdown restrictions easing combined with supply cuts out of OPEC+ (even if they don't match the drop in demand) might give a leg for energy prices to stand on. A wild card does exist in the form of a trade war re-igniting/worsening between the US and China, and that would make life more difficult in taking energy prices higher. In oil data, the first item for the week is this evening's API (American Petroleum Institute) estimate, with expectations for another surplus in the current depressed-demand-for-energy coronavirus storm.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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