Oil prices plummet again
Retail bias for oil moves up into heavy long territory again.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices stalled for a second straight session on a risk-on move yesterday, with this morning's USD strength taking its price towards today's (and close to the Weekly's) 1st Resistance level. The technical overview for both the Daily and Weekly is a stalling bull trend, in the case of the former its bull trend channel still holding for now on the daily chart ahead of tomorrow's US Federal Reserve announcement. Should consideration be given to conformist strategies, and any buy on the resistance ought to be done after a reversal (waiting for the level to be broken first by a significant amount before initiating if price recovers), else face the risk that any significant downside volatility could test long positions severely.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The technical overview on the Weekly is conflicting between gold and silver, as the latter’s price continues to stall and remain relatively rangebound even if it managed to outperform yesterday against its precious metal cousin. The gold/silver ratio may be slowly moving back down, but it still isn't that far off from the record highs posted last month. Nearly all its main technical indicators are neutral on both the daily and weekly, and ongoing oscillations will tempt more traders into range-trading instead of holding buy positions for the longer term.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
The small move yesterday took retail bias a couple notches lower, but with most of those longs initiated well above current market price, far more upside movement will be needed to take retail bias out of extreme long territory.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The Weekly levels for oil prices already got tested at the start of the week, with a break beneath its Weekly 1st Support level and (so far) aiding conformist breakout strategies. The spread between the June and July future contracts have widened once again, as unconfirmed reports emerge of funds ditching the June contract to spread their long positions on longer date futures contracts to avoid another rollover mayhem due to avoidance of taking physical delivery upon the expiry of the current contract on a lack of demand and storage. In oil data, API's (American Petroleum Institute) estimate is up next late tonight.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
As for traders, the plummet in its oil price has enticed fresh shorts into closing out, once more taking majority long bias back up into heavier territory (though still below the extreme long bias held prior to last Monday's rollover crash).
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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