Negative technical bias in gold & silver ahead of potential Fed rate cut
Range-bound movement to the downside in commodities set to get affected by tonight’s US Fed announcement.

Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold was in for a slight plummet in the early trading session yesterday, as the negative technical bias gathered a bit of pace, and pressured heavy long retail and institutional traders. But while the technical outlook is showing more negative bias in the short-term and with a negative Directional Movement Index (DMI) cross occurring yesterday, that matters little as we approach the big event tonight. Should the US Federal Reserve reduce interest rates or highlight more liquidity interventions and the attractiveness of the greenback will drop. Opting not to do that signifying the last two rate cuts were just a pause and not a trend and the non-yielding precious metal could be in for further retracement. Either way, its contrarian breakout strategies that may be more ideal than conformist reversal or fading ones, or at the very least opening a position counter to the market done after a reversal.
Current Technical Overview | Consolidation - Negative Bias |
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance At/Before Price, Buy 1st Support After Reversal |
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
S/L for 2nd Resistance | 1515.6 |
2nd Resistance | 1509.9 |
S/L for 1st Resistance | 1504.3 |
1st Resistance | 1498.7 |
Relative Starting Point | 1487.4 |
1st Support | 1476.1 |
S/L for 1st Support | 1470.5 |
2nd Support | 1464.8 |
S/L for 2nd Support | 1459.2 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for Gold

Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Both gold and silver suffered in yesterday's early session, but both of them being priced in dollars and being precious metals will be affected by tonight's US data and central bank decision, and that's before we get more significant data on Friday in the form of Non-Farm Payrolls.
Current Technical Overview | Consolidation |
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance After Reversal, Buy 1st Support After Reversal |
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
S/L for 2nd Resistance | 18.4 |
2nd Resistance | 18.28 |
S/L for 1st Resistance | 18.16 |
1st Resistance | 18.03 |
Relative Starting Point | 17.79 |
1st Support | 17.54 |
S/L for 1st Support | 17.42 |
2nd Support | 17.30 |
S/L for 2nd Support | 17.17 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for Silver
Going into tonight's event retail traders are holding extreme long bias at 88% and up a notch on yesterday’s reading, while institutional traders are at a heavy long 68%.

Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment

Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The first of this week's US oil inventories reports was released yesterday night with American Petroleum Institute (API) registering a 0.6M reading following last week's 4.45M reading. Energy Information Agency is up next expected at a similar 0.5M though as with most of the asset classes they'll likely be affected by tonight's Fed monetary policy announcement and what its forward guidance will be for the world's largest economy and in turn, appetite for the energy commodity. Oil prices were in for a significant retracement yesterday, with the dip reportedly caused by an industry report that stocks at the Cushing hub had risen.
Current Technical Overview | Consolidation - Positive Bias |
Technical Overview Conformist Strategies | Sell 1st Resistance After Reversal, Buy 1st Support After Reversal |
Technical Overview Contrarian Strategies | Buy 1st Resistance Upon Breakout From Below, Sell 1st Support Upon Breakout From Above |
S/L for 2nd Resistance | 58.87 |
2nd Resistance | 57.39 |
S/L for 1st Resistance | 57.91 |
1st Resistance | 56.44 |
Relative Starting Point | 55.48 |
1st Support | 54.52 |
S/L for 1st Support | 54.05 |
2nd Support | 53.57 |
S/L for 2nd Support | 53.09 |
IG client and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In terms of sentiment, it has risen slightly as fresh longs initiate, but stands close to the middle with any significant surge likely to cause a shift in bias.

Oil chart with retail and institutional sentiment

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