Gold, silver, and oil finish the week higher
CoT percentage long bias unchanged for all three, retail bias remains heavy to extreme long.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
After suffering a dip two weeks ago, gold prices have managed to finish the week in the green and keep its current technical overview of a stalling bull trend intact as its price breached the daily 1st Resistance level to offer buy breakout opportunities but where on the Weekly 1st Resistance level it failed to reach opting to remain within the key pivot points. All its main technical indicators on the weekly continue to flash green, and despite fresh record highs in indices and a US dollar that hasn’t necessarily underperformed by much in the FX market.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail long bias has dropped from 70% at the start of last week to 64%, while the latest CoT (Commitment of Traders) report out of the CFTC shows the bias amongst larger speculative traders unchanged at an extreme long 86% with a small rise in gold long positions by 626 lots and in short positions by 2,458 lots.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It’s been a very narrow and rangebound week for silver prices, failing to reach either pivot point on last week’s Weekly levels and retracing off the daily 1st Resistance level in line with its current consolidatory technical overview where the bulk of its main technical indicators on both the weekly and daily chart are neutral, but with its price above all its main long-term moving averages. Gold was the outperformer this time around, and that has taken the gold/silver ratio slightly higher for another consecutive week.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail bias is little changed and holding in extreme long levels at 93%, while CoT bias remains in heavy long territory at 77% with small reductions in both silver long and short positioning.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Despite expectations for volatility with its ADX (Average Directional Index) on the daily showing an ongoing propensity to trend but surrounded by mostly negative technical indicators, oil prices failed to reach either end of the key pivot points on last week’s Weekly levels. Its mid-term resistance level that was broken two weeks ago has managed to hold, though any updates on the fundamental front with regards to expected demand could once again infuse the energy commodity with volatility. IEA (International Energy Agency) has cut demand forecasts for the first quarter of this year, estimating that oil consumption globally will contract for the first time in ten years. Meanwhile, Friday’s Baker Hughes US oil rig count showed a slight rise to 676 from 678.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Lastly, in sentiment, retail long bias has dropped on long profit-taking last week but remains in extreme long territory at 82%, while CoT bias is unchanged at 76% with small increases in both long and short positioning.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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