Gold, silver, and oil finish the session lower
Retail bias in gold reaches extreme long levels, surges in oil to heavier buy levels.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices were in for significant retreat yesterday that tested its short-term bull trend technical overview with an initial break of yesterday's 1st Support level that held early on before prices crashed through (the second crash lower didn't offer a conformist buy-on-reversal as prices continued to drop and didn't offer a reversal opportunity). It briefly crossed below its 50-day moving average (MA) before retracing back up, and as it stands its price is below all its short-term MA's and above all its long-term ones, and combined with a trending ADX (Average Directional Movement Index). Economic data as well as soaring indices may mean precious metals are in for a breakage of key pivot points as we approach the end of the week, and hence implies breakout vs. reversal instead of the typical buy vs. sell.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail bias is now in extreme long territory, jumping to 80%.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It's a technical overview shift as we approach the end of the week for silver, despite bullish technicals that were tested yesterday with a break of its 1st Support level twice, the first time offering plenty on a conformist buy-on-reversal but triggering the stop the second time it plummeted. Silver underperformed slightly against gold again, taking the gold/silver ratio slightly higher into the 96s after what has been a noticeable drop. Most of its main technical indicators remain bullish on both the daily and weekly, with its bull trend line still holding on both charts. However, with fundamental items and a potential shift in risk appetite means pivot points are likely to get severely tested with an increase in volatility.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
In sentiment, retail bias is little changed and remains in extreme long territory, rising a notch to 88%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices were anything but volatile yesterday, staying with its key levels and failing to offer any pivot point action despite making a brief fresh high. On the OPEC+ front, unconfirmed reports indicate that both Saudi Arabia and Russia are in favor of extending the 9.7m bpd (barrels per day) cut into July, but that it is conditional on countries who have failed on the compliance front to further reduce their output to make up for lost cuts. A lack of an agreement will mean a 7.7m bpd cut next month in line with the original agreement, as well as considerations that GCC producers aren't planning to extend the additional voluntary cuts of 1.8m bpd beyond this month. Any confirmed reports could result in larger moves for the energy commodity, and on the inventories front EIA's (Energy Information Administration) reading showed a surprise 2.1m deficit..
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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