Gold recovers, silver oscillates, oil in the red
Retail long bias in silver and oil rise further into extreme territory.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices were in for yet another volatile session, this time around with the US dollar surging in the FX market taking its price back below its 200-day moving average, as well as offering plenty below yesterday's 1st Support level as it breached yesterday's 2nd Support level as well, only for it to retrace back up and offer plenty beyond yesterday’s 1st Resistance level. In a more confusing twist, gold prices haven't been moving opposite riskier assets like equities, but sometimes in tandem as any significant plummet in equities may result in increased demand for liquidity, and in turn taking the US dollar higher and pushing USD denominated assets lower.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
That will continue to test both retail and institutional traders, with the bias in the former at 76% dropping from the start of the week's 82% extreme long bias.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Silver prices were also in for a plummet that broke past yesterday's 1st and 2nd Support levels, even if its price retraced back up later in the session towards offering breakouts profit-taking as well as contrarian buy-on-reversal when prices recovered. Gold outperformed once more, pushing the gold/silver ratio briefly to 124 and testing traders selling the spread anticipating the difference between the two precious metals to narrow while it widens instead.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Retail bias here remains in extreme long territory and tested by the downside movement, rising now to a staggering 94%.
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Despite making a move slightly higher earlier in the session as the futures market attempted to recover, oil prices retraced back down and failed to reach yesterday's 1st Resistance level, offering a conformist sell-on-breakout on yesterday’s 1st Support level as its price crashed through into the 26s. In data, API (American Petroleum Institute) showed a surprise deficit of -.4M following last week's 6.4M increase, and EIA (Energy Information Administration) is up next expected to show a 3.5M surplus compared to last week's big 7.7M increase as countries (and companies) hurry to store oil at current prices given the oil price war that is being carried out.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Retail bias here is also rising further into extreme long levels as short positions dwindle and longs hold on, with the bias rising 2% to an extreme long 87%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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