Gold pops higher, oil retraces after API surplus
Retail longs continue to unwind in the precious metal, raise their majority buy bias in oil on the dip.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Equities were in for fresh highs, and with the US dollar in retreat in the FX market, gold prices managed to move higher for the session, breaching yesterday's 1st Resistance level plenty of times offering some in both directions for both conformist and contrarian strategies, and once against testing long positions on a relative lack of follow-through beyond its daily pivot points. That has meant trend traders continue to get tested within the current environment and are enticed into taking profit sooner, and those range-trading for limited profit-taking are at risk of having fresh positions initiating opposite exposed to an eventual trend move.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Retail long bias as a result is still majority long but has dropped from heavy long territory of 66% yesterday to 63% as of this morning.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Oil prices oscillated yesterday to initially make fresh highs before finishing the session lower, keeping its price within its key pivot points and failing to offer any pivot point action. China-India tensions may have dropped as have tensions on the Korean Peninsula, but they’ve picked up slightly in oil rich regions and should that accelerate may offer a floor for the energy commodity’s price. What hasn’t helped is oil data yesterday, whereby API's (American Petroleum Institute) inventories reading showed a 1.749m surplus, and EIA's (Energy Information Administration) more encompassing estimate is up next expected to show a 1.2m increase identical to last week's reading. Lockdown restrictions are easing, manufacturing data is better than expected, but that won’t translate into increased travel demand just yet especially from countries deemed as high-risk.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail long bias has risen after yesterday’s drop to 59%.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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