Gold movement remains volatile, oil recovers slightly
Long bias rises in gold and silver, drops in oil.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
While expectations have been for a higher gold prices out of traders and investors anticipating the precious metal to outperform at a time when increased stimulus and central bank easing is set to increase, the volatility in the short-term has been high with a breach yesterday of its 1st Support level on three occasions with different offerings. With equities in retreat this morning and the US dollar weakening, gold prices have already risen making a move towards today’s 1st Resistance level. The technical overview remains volatile, but it hasn’t translated into ruling out contrarian reversals just yet.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
In sentiment, retail bias has inched slightly higher to a heavy long 74%, some awaiting a move back up to unwind longs initiated at higher price levels.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
The volatility in silver hasn't been as high as that of gold with the latter taking most of the attention when investors think of a precious metal to be used as a safe haven. As such, the upside/downside movement in gold has been greater and has translated into wilder swings on the gold/silver ratio front retracing back down to 97 from yesterday’s brief 100 breach. While the main technical indicators here are neutral to the downside, where the US dollar rests may be a larger indicator in the absence of any additional factors.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Although oil data has been less relevant in the current oil price war, yesterday's API (American Petroleum Institute) oil inventories estimate showed a 6.4M following last week's 1.7M surplus, and with EIA (Energy Information Administration) set to show a smaller 2M surplus this evening. Overall, the gap lower over the weekend for oil prices and expectations of a worsening price war has made it difficult to determine where the energy commodity's price will settle, and in the meantime any updates from the oil majors on price or output will no doubt be an influence on oil prices, such as Saudi Aramco CEO saying it would raise its supply to a record 12.3mn barrels per day, failing to see a reason to hold OPEC+ meetings in June.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Retail long bias here has dropped from 85% to 79% on fresh short initiation, as the nearly all longs initiated at higher price levels
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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