Gold holds, silver retraces, and oil plummets
Safe haven gapped higher but failed to hold onto gains, while oil’s price drop continues to test traders.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
With equities in retreat on fears regarding the corona virus, gold prices had a leg to stand on even if the US dollar relatively outperformed in the FX market (only the safe haven and franc managed to best the greenback amongst the FX majors). That has kept its bull trend technical overview intact on both the weekly and daily, even if the catalyst is non-technical related and has to do with fundamental factors. While there's significant US data this evening in the form of durables and CB's consumer confidence, and risk-taking is usually limited ahead of tomorrow's US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement, the fear trade continues to dominate the markets. Overall and in the context of any dent in economic growth, this would put pressure on central banks to maintain (or increase) easing to prevent any downturn in economic worries from spreading.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Silver Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Commodities were in serious retreat yesterday, but for silver the decline was minimal, with its price gapping higher but failing to hold onto those gains, and where compared to gold it failed to outperform. The technical overview on the weekly is more consolidatory where its ADX (Average Directional Index) isn't showing a propensity to trend, making a breach of weekly pivot points more difficult, but on the daily more of its main technical indicators are still flashing green, and showing signs of a stalling bull trend.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Silver
Silver chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil WTI Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
It's been one harsh hit for oil prices after another, this time around the gap lower taking its price towards the 52s before retracing slightly later in the session and following five consecutive sessions of losses that has kept its short-term daily overview volatile and showing heavy negative technical bias otherwise. Given the moves are fundamentally related as tourism and airline stocks tumble taking energy and commodities in general down with it, any change in fortunes on that front would translate into a direct move here. Otherwise, in terms of data we'll get API's (American Petroleum Institute) weekly inventory estimate late this evening, as well as the US unveiling of its Middle East peace plan.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
* The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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