Gold finishes the week stronger, oil fails to impress
CoT traders remain majority long in both, oil retail bias shifts to the middle.
Gold Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Gold prices were relatively more volatile after last week's breach of the $1,800 level, and resulted in aiding conformist breakout strategies on the Weekly 1st Resistance level initially before reversals outperformed on a partial drop back down. Downside breakout strategies on the Daily suffered late last week as although price finished lower, it did so in a retraceable fashion to offer contrarian reversal strategies opportunities instead.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Gold
On the sentiment front, CoT (Commitment of Traders) bias is little changed from last week and still in extreme long territory at 83% with an increase in longs by 8,088 lots somewhat matched by a 7,400 lot increase in shorts. They also continue to hold a heavy long bias in silver (65%), platinum (73%), and palladium (65%). In retail sentiment, the breach has enticed more longs into entering with the bias rising from a heavy buy 64% late last week to a heavy long 70% at the start of this week.
Gold chart with retail and institutional sentiment
Oil Technical analysis, overview, strategies, and levels
Last week's Weekly pivot points held but short-term Daily pivot points broke to the downside later in the week with oil prices dipping on Thursday but recovering partially the day after. Coronavirus cases aren't expected to subside anytime soon, but so long as the latest restrictions don't dent transportation (such as wearing masks) then energy demand may not be as negatively affected by rising numbers. In oil data, Friday's Baker Hughes oil rig count showed another drop, this time to 181 from 185 the week before, the oscillations at these prices failing to halt the active rig drop just yet. While the technicals continue to paint a more bullish short-term picture that's stalling heavily near the highs, we've got an OPEC+ JMMC meeting on Wednesday where according to unconfirmed reports, officials are pushing for a supply increase in August.
IG client* and CoT sentiment for Oil WTI
In sentiment, retail bias has shifted to the middle, while CoT speculators remain majority long.
Oil WTI chart with retail and institutional sentiment
*The percentage of IG client accounts with positions in this market that are currently long or short. Calculated to the nearest 1%, as of today morning 8am.
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